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Right. I just had an article cross my stream about completely thought-controlled hand prosthetics that can actually grasp things and give feedback on pressure.

by groby_b 14y ago

Right. I just had an article cross my stream about completely thought-controlled hand prosthetics that can actually grasp things and give feedback on pressure. Clearly not a tech advancement. Genetic testing for $99. Clearly just incremental, because hey, last year it was $199. Never mind the fact that it wasn't even imaginable 20 years ago. Private space shipment at a price/weight that's rapidly decreasing way below what we ever had. Rapid acceleration of solar technology. And the list goes on and on. Of course they're all incremental - that's how science and technology work. Einstein's theory of relativity didn't come out of nowhere, but built on predecessors. The transistor built on long research in solid state physics, Shockley didn't just pull it out of his pocket. And if we go to the trope of "but they were paradigm shifts" - so is "big data". So is probabilistic AI. So is molecular engineering.

cinquemb 14y ago
Funny because Thiel would remark along the lines of despite those very valid technical advancements (that he himself is invested in), most people in the United States (or developed world) are not even in the context of understanding what value most of the things you listed will be to them. What is the economic value of a thought controlled hand prosthetics to an illusioned college student who just finished watching Minority Report and iRobot who is "able-bodied"(for lack of a better term) and who will probably never use it (maybe they will use it in some form of masturbatory tool) though claim to sympathize with those who do yet knowing nothing of them personally and their experiences? What is the economic value of private space shipment for someone who will probably never receive any financial gain of space travel proportional to the few who do, when working at [insert-mega-corp] CEO makes 1k times the avg employee (that their laying of in increasing numbers) they hope to work at after graduating with 100k in debt for 30k/y designing logos for a brand with sales down y/y for 5 years? What is the economic value of solar technology to most americans whose idea of electricity is flipping a switch that have no idea about the publicly subsidized/poorly maintained aged infrastructure, and think solar panels are fancy tech that is not needed? And the list goes on. Paradigm shifts or not in tech have been effectively moot when the perception (and the benefit in peoples immediately lives) seem to be out of sight (economists might see this as spending more money but getting less and less returns as time progresses). When they are in sight, you bet it will come in the form of drone packed action thriller with big data crunching molecularly engineered AI genetically testing people using 23andMe api to exterminate those with disease risks higher than the overall population coming down from ISS with Space X's grasshopper drone edition, with the video game to follow then preceding the cartoon equivalent for childhood consumption. I bet the teen in Fez, Morroco who didn't have electricity for most of their life and has to hang around tourist bars to watch his favorite team play to go back home to his "house" made of corrugated aluminum roofing(in some places) with walls at least a thousand years old [http://i.imgur.com/1zzmoLa.jpg http://i.imgur.com/1zzmoLa.jpg] outfitted with satellite tv installed by the state and only on few hours of the day (the mother would be watching her favorite american show of course) due to power contraints, will probably appreciate that cheep chinese solar panel installed by EWB more than either of us (which Thiel alludes to in this talk) after never having stable electricity [my personal experience after living there for some time]. I sure know the youth in Spain and Greece sure do appreciate this tech and are using it for their economic benefit as you can tell from their quality of life.
- eli_gottlieb 14y ago
  To be wittier about it: "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed."
jacoblyles 14y ago
Time to travel across the United States, a metric that has been steadily improving for centuries, stagnated at about 1970.

by groby_b 14y ago

cinquemb 14y ago

Funny because Thiel would remark along the lines of despite those very valid technical advancements (that he himself is invested in), most people in the United States (or developed world) are not even in the context of understanding what value most of the things you listed will be to them. What is the economic value of a thought controlled hand prosthetics to an illusioned college student who just finished watching Minority Report and iRobot who is "able-bodied"(for lack of a better term) and who will probably never use it (maybe they will use it in some form of masturbatory tool) though claim to sympathize with those who do yet knowing nothing of them personally and their experiences? What is the economic value of private space shipment for someone who will probably never receive any financial gain of space travel proportional to the few who do, when working at [insert-mega-corp] CEO makes 1k times the avg employee (that their laying of in increasing numbers) they hope to work at after graduating with 100k in debt for 30k/y designing logos for a brand with sales down y/y for 5 years? What is the economic value of solar technology to most americans whose idea of electricity is flipping a switch that have no idea about the publicly subsidized/poorly maintained aged infrastructure, and think solar panels are fancy tech that is not needed? And the list goes on. Paradigm shifts or not in tech have been effectively moot when the perception (and the benefit in peoples immediately lives) seem to be out of sight (economists might see this as spending more money but getting less and less returns as time progresses). When they are in sight, you bet it will come in the form of drone packed action thriller with big data crunching molecularly engineered AI genetically testing people using 23andMe api to exterminate those with disease risks higher than the overall population coming down from ISS with Space X's grasshopper drone edition, with the video game to follow then preceding the cartoon equivalent for childhood consumption. I bet the teen in Fez, Morroco who didn't have electricity for most of their life and has to hang around tourist bars to watch his favorite team play to go back home to his "house" made of corrugated aluminum roofing(in some places) with walls at least a thousand years old [http://i.imgur.com/1zzmoLa.jpg http://i.imgur.com/1zzmoLa.jpg] outfitted with satellite tv installed by the state and only on few hours of the day (the mother would be watching her favorite american show of course) due to power contraints, will probably appreciate that cheep chinese solar panel installed by EWB more than either of us (which Thiel alludes to in this talk) after never having stable electricity [my personal experience after living there for some time]. I sure know the youth in Spain and Greece sure do appreciate this tech and are using it for their economic benefit as you can tell from their quality of life.

eli_gottlieb 14y ago
To be wittier about it: "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed."

jacoblyles 14y ago

Time to travel across the United States, a metric that has been steadily improving for centuries, stagnated at about 1970.