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Why isn't there a glut of baseball players who hit .408 in the major leagues? Because it's a rare person who can hit a ball thrown at nearly 100 MPH 40% of the

Why isn't there a glut of baseball players who hit .408 in the major leagues? Because it's a rare person who can hit a ball thrown at nearly 100 MPH 40% of the time. Software engineers are common but people who deliver quality product after product is a rare bird. Programming at a high level is not as easy as this author seems to think.

pekk 14y ago
Every company seems to think it needs programmers who hit .408 in the major leagues. Maybe the problem is that they think making money is a zero-sum game like baseball, so that they have to have the "best team" and not just a team which can build what's necessary to make some money (not the most money, that would also be a game).
- thedufer 14y ago
  You're assuming that 2 people hitting .200 are equivalent to one hitting .400. This isn't true in baseball, nor in software development. The competition is because the person hitting .400 is worth at least an order of magnitude more than a person hitting .200. The same discrepancy is not found in salaries, so you obviously prefer to hire from the top.
supercanuck 14y ago
The average fastball in the majors is more akin to 88-90mph and fastballs make up about 70% of the pitches thrown. Accuracy is a better indicator of success for a baseball pitcher than velocity.
jpatokal 14y ago
Philip Greenspun, aka "this person", has a pretty solid resume when it comes to programming. http://philip.greenspun.com/personal/resume http://philip.greenspun.com/personal/resume
- npsimons 14y ago
  Great coder can't understand why there aren't more great coders around. Film at 11. Perhaps Greenspun has "suffered" from working with too many great coders, or finds programming easy, so he can't understand why there aren't more great coders around. Maybe if he studied more sociology, or IQ statistics, or hell even economics (in the form of market demands) he'd be better equipped to understand why there aren't more great coders. I know who Greenspun is, and I have a lot of respect for his programming chops, but this comes off as someone either disconnected from reality, or someone thinking that because they are expert at one thing, they are expert at everything.
- djKianoosh 14y ago
  just because "this person" might be solid still doesn't mean anything. quite possibly it might actually delude him from reality if he's way above average
- sixbrx 14y ago
  And like many brilliant and talented people, they're completely clueless that in the real world, many other people just don't have the natural abilities that they themselves have, thus they are repeatedly perplexed that others just can't do the "easy" things they do. Often I've seen instead that they will instead ascribe others' failures as moral failures, which bites doubly against those that are trying hard but can't measure up.
  - beat 14y ago
    I struggle with that myself. My attitude toward people who aren't accomplishing much with their lives is "Well, work harder!" But while much of my own success is due to hard, focused work, much of it is also due to raw intelligence and talent. Not everyone has that.
- danielweber 14y ago
  He also wanted to make his employees work 70+ hour weeks: Suppose that a programmer needs to spend 25 hours per week keeping current with new technology, getting coordinated with other programmers, contributing to documentation and thought leadership pieces, and comprehending the structures of the systems being extended. Under this assumption, a programmer who works 55 hours per week will produce twice as much code as one who works 40 hours per week http://philip.greenspun.com/ancient-history/managing-software-engineers http://philip.greenspun.com/ancient-history/managing-softwar...

pekk 14y ago

Every company seems to think it needs programmers who hit .408 in the major leagues. Maybe the problem is that they think making money is a zero-sum game like baseball, so that they have to have the "best team" and not just a team which can build what's necessary to make some money (not the most money, that would also be a game).

thedufer 14y ago
You're assuming that 2 people hitting .200 are equivalent to one hitting .400. This isn't true in baseball, nor in software development. The competition is because the person hitting .400 is worth at least an order of magnitude more than a person hitting .200. The same discrepancy is not found in salaries, so you obviously prefer to hire from the top.

supercanuck 14y ago

The average fastball in the majors is more akin to 88-90mph and fastballs make up about 70% of the pitches thrown. Accuracy is a better indicator of success for a baseball pitcher than velocity.

jpatokal 14y ago

Philip Greenspun, aka "this person", has a pretty solid resume when it comes to programming. http://philip.greenspun.com/personal/resume http://philip.greenspun.com/personal/resume

npsimons 14y ago
Great coder can't understand why there aren't more great coders around. Film at 11. Perhaps Greenspun has "suffered" from working with too many great coders, or finds programming easy, so he can't understand why there aren't more great coders around. Maybe if he studied more sociology, or IQ statistics, or hell even economics (in the form of market demands) he'd be better equipped to understand why there aren't more great coders. I know who Greenspun is, and I have a lot of respect for his programming chops, but this comes off as someone either disconnected from reality, or someone thinking that because they are expert at one thing, they are expert at everything.
djKianoosh 14y ago
just because "this person" might be solid still doesn't mean anything. quite possibly it might actually delude him from reality if he's way above average
sixbrx 14y ago
And like many brilliant and talented people, they're completely clueless that in the real world, many other people just don't have the natural abilities that they themselves have, thus they are repeatedly perplexed that others just can't do the "easy" things they do. Often I've seen instead that they will instead ascribe others' failures as moral failures, which bites doubly against those that are trying hard but can't measure up.
- beat 14y ago
  I struggle with that myself. My attitude toward people who aren't accomplishing much with their lives is "Well, work harder!" But while much of my own success is due to hard, focused work, much of it is also due to raw intelligence and talent. Not everyone has that.
danielweber 14y ago
He also wanted to make his employees work 70+ hour weeks: Suppose that a programmer needs to spend 25 hours per week keeping current with new technology, getting coordinated with other programmers, contributing to documentation and thought leadership pieces, and comprehending the structures of the systems being extended. Under this assumption, a programmer who works 55 hours per week will produce twice as much code as one who works 40 hours per week http://philip.greenspun.com/ancient-history/managing-software-engineers http://philip.greenspun.com/ancient-history/managing-softwar...