This is really the availability heuristic (basically that the information that is most readily available seems most accurate or likely to be true). When smart

This is really the availability heuristic (basically that the information that is most readily available seems most accurate or likely to be true). When smart people explain complex subjects clearly and confidently we have the tendency to say "oh yeah, that makes a lot of sense." In reality nothing is always true but that doesn't necessarily mean it isn't good to fool ourselves into thinking so. In fact it's probably how progress is made. If people knew how hard most things were going to be at the outset, they'd never start and look for something easier to do.