The problem with prediction on this scale is that it's becomes a function of chaotic effects. i.e., Some small unpredictable thing like an invention or some tra

The problem with prediction on this scale is that it's becomes a function of chaotic effects. i.e., Some small unpredictable thing like an invention or some trait of a president can have very profound effects over time akin to the butterfly effect. Even solid statistics will fail horribly over a longer time period.