I can summarize the problem with the data in one sentence: a degree in computer science has almost no correlation with your usefulness as a programmer. So a glu

I can summarize the problem with the data in one sentence: a degree in computer science has almost no correlation with your usefulness as a programmer. So a glut of people with degrees does not imply that there is no skill shortage. Really good programmers, like musicians, almost invariably start practicing as children. By high school, they know enough to be dangerous. By college, they're operating on a qualitatively different level than their peers who are trying programming for the first time. (Hence the widely-reported bimodal distribution of student performance in introductory college CS classes.) Can someone starting at age 18 still become a great programmer? Almost certainly. But they need to put in the vast amount of times and intense effort that it takes, and that gets harder to accomodate the older you get.