9 ms·

> There is massive, and growing, demand in all sectors for software developers, and our universities aren't graduating them faster than demand growth, and as a

by freyr 14y ago

> There is massive, and growing, demand in all sectors for software developers, and our universities aren't graduating them faster than demand growth, and as a result software dev salaries are rising (or at least not falling). This is a direct contradiction to what's claimed in the article, namely that dev salaries are not rising to the extent that would be expected if there were a true shortage.

kyllo 14y ago
Yeah, I don't have data on hand to support this, but I also doubt that software dev salaries are really rising fast enough to indicate an actual shortage, or at least a new or growing shortage. I think the problem employers see is not that software dev salaries are rising, just that they are high compared to other job descriptions, and have been for years. Starting salaries for an entry-level software developer (with a bachelor's in CS) are roughly double the starting salaries for non-programmer entry-level positions that require a bachelor's degree--and employers don't like that.
- freyr 14y ago
  True. It would be interesting if they could break out salary growth for top developers vs. average developers. The common sentiment here seems to be that there's a shortage of highly talented developers. If this is true, then their salaries may in fact be rising at a higher pace. "Starting salaries for an entry-level software developer (with a bachelor's in CS) are roughly double the starting salaries for non-programmer entry-level positions that require a bachelor's degree--and employers don't like that." That's also true, but it's also interesting to consider from the perspective of a talented student considering CS. If he believes everything he reads, (a) he'll start with a decent salary but probably hit a glass ceiling relatively quickly (a much lower ceiling than, say, a doctor or management consultant or trader), (b) his skill set is in constant danger of becoming outdated due to the unusually high pace of skill turnover, at which point he'll be replaced by an H-1B holder or new CS grad, (c) he'll be expected to move to Silicon Valley (or NYC, apparently) where the cost of living will negate his higher salary. If any of these things actually come to pass, the relatively high starting salary he made the first few years out of school won't be much consolation.
drbacon 14y ago
That's a good point. I have difficulty reconciling two opposing feelings: I feel like the US is not producing enough developers/engineers, and I feel like the salaries do not reflect the shortage. I have been working as a developer (and also an analyst) in the DC area for 6 years. The talent pool around here is very shallow. The companies for which I have worked are constantly looking to hire programmers. It is very difficult to find qualified applicants. Roughly half of developers at my current company are on H1-B visas. I think H1-B is both a form of indentured servitude and somewhat necessary (at least in the DC area). I wish there were a better way to employ immigrants, so that they could more easily job-hop or go out on their own. OTOH, I think the salaries have not reflected this shortage. Maybe I am just a poor negotiator. Perhaps Boston, Austin and other hot beds are different (i.e. deeper talent pools, more opportunistic employers). But I see my employers struggle to find developers, and poor salaries blamed on the economy.
- TheCoelacanth 14y ago
  If the salaries haven't reflected the shortage, it's not a shortage. It's just a bunch of people unsuccessfully trying to buy something below market price.
yajoe 14y ago
To throw some numbers at this question about salaries. Here is the Standard Offer for a college hire Level 59 Microsoft SDE (Developer) to Seattle over the years as I've observed them. 2005-2006: 70k 2007-2008: 80k 2009-2010: 85/90k (there was a macro recession here) 2011-2012: 100k/105k 2013: 105k--110k (tbd) In 6 years that's a 50% increase. What other industry has as much salary growth for front-line or entry-level people? I believe in a shortage. The most likely cause is this VC-infused hiring bubble going on that may burst and put a lot of people back on the market. What's tragic is that Microsoft people who started in 2006 and had 70% careers are often making similar money as the entry-level folks. Combine that with a toxic environment and stagnant products, and it's pretty easy to understand why great people leave the company. It's also pretty easy to understand why Microsoft wants to import H1Bs that often are terrified of getting deported back and will do anything to keep their jobs.
- larsberg 14y ago
  Two things that make me suspect this information is anecdotal rather than from a hiring manager (though I could be wrong): 1) I left MSFT around 2006, but the offers I made to (admittedly, mostly blue chip) candidates in 2002-2004 were closer to 80k and not even at the top end of the L59 level band. I'm not sure those early year numbers are quite spot on. 2) The initial offers are set for the middle of the L59 compensation range/band. As those bands went up, so did all of the others - I guarantee the L59 band is not above the L60 band. If you got hired in 2006, you're at least L62 by six years later (or you would have been managed out, in any non-disfunctional org). Even if you'd been camping and never made L63 (which is a big bump), you would get raises as the midpoint for the band moved over the years. Otherwise, it raises very serious issues with your group's HR generalist about why you have a L62 who's being paid outside (below or above) the acceptable range around the salary band and the manager would have been encouraged to either motivate or manage out the employee, if they really didn't deserve raises to take them back into the correct compensation range. Microsoft is disfunctional about many things, but the HR generalists were pretty good at tracking and running numbers and asking very hard questions about people who were over/under-compensated or stagnating at a low level (sub-L63).
  - 14y ago
potatolicious 14y ago
Because they're not rising. Or rather more accurately, because only one segment of the industry is rising while the rest stay stagnant. The offers being thrown around by Facebook, Google, et al, aren't anything to scoff at, and as another poster pointed out already, have gone up substantially in a just a few short years (that 50% number is accurate for new grads, it's higher for those with experience). But the bulk of programmers in the country don't work at Facebook, or Google, or Microsoft. Nor are they forging the bleeding edge future of consumer/enterprise tech. They're doing the unglamorous, not often discussed IT grunt work in the back office of some corporate headquarters. Their salaries are stagnant, and they are stagnant regardless of H-1B numbers specifically because the supply-demand curve in that leve of the industry sucks. And because our statistics put the $45K VB6 coder in the same category as the $200K+ Google engineer, the rise in one segment of the industry is largely hidden. There is a danger to making decisions based on averages. It's strange to me how every time the tech immigration debate comes up Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and co. are beaten to a pulp. They're the ones actually importing people at above market rates, they're the ones handing out $110K offers to new grads and $150-200K offers to even intermediate level coders. They're not the boogeyman under your bed. Whereas actual exploitative employers like Infosys are barely mentioned. In fact, none of the infamous programming sweatshops are even named in this article. How is that the actual bad actors are facing none of the media scrutiny while the only good (or neutral) actors get all the blame?
- freyr 14y ago
  That's an interesting point. So we can differentiate between top-talent coders who are in high demand from top companies, and the bulk of programmers working for far less at companies like Infosys, Wipro, etc. But who are Facebook, Google, Microsoft (not to mention, Infosys, Wipro, etc.) trying to hire through the H-1B program? Top talent? Average coders? Why doesn't Facebook, Google, Microsoft, etc., first recruit from the masses of underpaid Infosys developers? This would force the "bad actors" to improve as well.
  - jbooth 14y ago
    Yes, they're trying to hire top talent through the H-1B program. Immigration status is orthogonal to talent. That's the reason they're generally not trying to recruit from the masses of underpaid infosys developers.

by freyr 14y ago

kyllo 14y ago

Yeah, I don't have data on hand to support this, but I also doubt that software dev salaries are really rising fast enough to indicate an actual shortage, or at least a new or growing shortage. I think the problem employers see is not that software dev salaries are rising, just that they are high compared to other job descriptions, and have been for years. Starting salaries for an entry-level software developer (with a bachelor's in CS) are roughly double the starting salaries for non-programmer entry-level positions that require a bachelor's degree--and employers don't like that.

freyr 14y ago
True. It would be interesting if they could break out salary growth for top developers vs. average developers. The common sentiment here seems to be that there's a shortage of highly talented developers. If this is true, then their salaries may in fact be rising at a higher pace. "Starting salaries for an entry-level software developer (with a bachelor's in CS) are roughly double the starting salaries for non-programmer entry-level positions that require a bachelor's degree--and employers don't like that." That's also true, but it's also interesting to consider from the perspective of a talented student considering CS. If he believes everything he reads, (a) he'll start with a decent salary but probably hit a glass ceiling relatively quickly (a much lower ceiling than, say, a doctor or management consultant or trader), (b) his skill set is in constant danger of becoming outdated due to the unusually high pace of skill turnover, at which point he'll be replaced by an H-1B holder or new CS grad, (c) he'll be expected to move to Silicon Valley (or NYC, apparently) where the cost of living will negate his higher salary. If any of these things actually come to pass, the relatively high starting salary he made the first few years out of school won't be much consolation.

drbacon 14y ago

That's a good point. I have difficulty reconciling two opposing feelings: I feel like the US is not producing enough developers/engineers, and I feel like the salaries do not reflect the shortage. I have been working as a developer (and also an analyst) in the DC area for 6 years. The talent pool around here is very shallow. The companies for which I have worked are constantly looking to hire programmers. It is very difficult to find qualified applicants. Roughly half of developers at my current company are on H1-B visas. I think H1-B is both a form of indentured servitude and somewhat necessary (at least in the DC area). I wish there were a better way to employ immigrants, so that they could more easily job-hop or go out on their own. OTOH, I think the salaries have not reflected this shortage. Maybe I am just a poor negotiator. Perhaps Boston, Austin and other hot beds are different (i.e. deeper talent pools, more opportunistic employers). But I see my employers struggle to find developers, and poor salaries blamed on the economy.

TheCoelacanth 14y ago
If the salaries haven't reflected the shortage, it's not a shortage. It's just a bunch of people unsuccessfully trying to buy something below market price.

yajoe 14y ago

To throw some numbers at this question about salaries. Here is the Standard Offer for a college hire Level 59 Microsoft SDE (Developer) to Seattle over the years as I've observed them. 2005-2006: 70k 2007-2008: 80k 2009-2010: 85/90k (there was a macro recession here) 2011-2012: 100k/105k 2013: 105k--110k (tbd) In 6 years that's a 50% increase. What other industry has as much salary growth for front-line or entry-level people? I believe in a shortage. The most likely cause is this VC-infused hiring bubble going on that may burst and put a lot of people back on the market. What's tragic is that Microsoft people who started in 2006 and had 70% careers are often making similar money as the entry-level folks. Combine that with a toxic environment and stagnant products, and it's pretty easy to understand why great people leave the company. It's also pretty easy to understand why Microsoft wants to import H1Bs that often are terrified of getting deported back and will do anything to keep their jobs.

larsberg 14y ago
Two things that make me suspect this information is anecdotal rather than from a hiring manager (though I could be wrong): 1) I left MSFT around 2006, but the offers I made to (admittedly, mostly blue chip) candidates in 2002-2004 were closer to 80k and not even at the top end of the L59 level band. I'm not sure those early year numbers are quite spot on. 2) The initial offers are set for the middle of the L59 compensation range/band. As those bands went up, so did all of the others - I guarantee the L59 band is not above the L60 band. If you got hired in 2006, you're at least L62 by six years later (or you would have been managed out, in any non-disfunctional org). Even if you'd been camping and never made L63 (which is a big bump), you would get raises as the midpoint for the band moved over the years. Otherwise, it raises very serious issues with your group's HR generalist about why you have a L62 who's being paid outside (below or above) the acceptable range around the salary band and the manager would have been encouraged to either motivate or manage out the employee, if they really didn't deserve raises to take them back into the correct compensation range. Microsoft is disfunctional about many things, but the HR generalists were pretty good at tracking and running numbers and asking very hard questions about people who were over/under-compensated or stagnating at a low level (sub-L63).
- 14y ago

potatolicious 14y ago

Because they're not rising. Or rather more accurately, because only one segment of the industry is rising while the rest stay stagnant. The offers being thrown around by Facebook, Google, et al, aren't anything to scoff at, and as another poster pointed out already, have gone up substantially in a just a few short years (that 50% number is accurate for new grads, it's higher for those with experience). But the bulk of programmers in the country don't work at Facebook, or Google, or Microsoft. Nor are they forging the bleeding edge future of consumer/enterprise tech. They're doing the unglamorous, not often discussed IT grunt work in the back office of some corporate headquarters. Their salaries are stagnant, and they are stagnant regardless of H-1B numbers specifically because the supply-demand curve in that leve of the industry sucks. And because our statistics put the $45K VB6 coder in the same category as the $200K+ Google engineer, the rise in one segment of the industry is largely hidden. There is a danger to making decisions based on averages. It's strange to me how every time the tech immigration debate comes up Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and co. are beaten to a pulp. They're the ones actually importing people at above market rates, they're the ones handing out $110K offers to new grads and $150-200K offers to even intermediate level coders. They're not the boogeyman under your bed. Whereas actual exploitative employers like Infosys are barely mentioned. In fact, none of the infamous programming sweatshops are even named in this article. How is that the actual bad actors are facing none of the media scrutiny while the only good (or neutral) actors get all the blame?

freyr 14y ago
That's an interesting point. So we can differentiate between top-talent coders who are in high demand from top companies, and the bulk of programmers working for far less at companies like Infosys, Wipro, etc. But who are Facebook, Google, Microsoft (not to mention, Infosys, Wipro, etc.) trying to hire through the H-1B program? Top talent? Average coders? Why doesn't Facebook, Google, Microsoft, etc., first recruit from the masses of underpaid Infosys developers? This would force the "bad actors" to improve as well.
- jbooth 14y ago
  Yes, they're trying to hire top talent through the H-1B program. Immigration status is orthogonal to talent. That's the reason they're generally not trying to recruit from the masses of underpaid infosys developers.