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A DNA Test doesn't work like that. Probability tests do, but not things we label "probability" that aren't. "there is a 25% chance of rain tomorrow" isn't rea
by drakaal 14y ago
A DNA Test doesn't work like that.
Probability tests do, but not things we label "probability" that aren't. "there is a 25% chance of rain tomorrow" isn't really a 25%. It is a confidence score.
Something people can grasp better than DNA: Let's say you have a partial thumb print in an imaginary murder. You could eliminate suspects who don't have that portion of the thumb print, but you couldn't confirm that the person or people who match did it. Only that the thumbprint is a "Pocked Loop", "Whorl", or "mixed" and so anyone with a "tent Arch" is not the killer.
You can be 100% confident that the print excludes the person with the "Tent Arch" and if you knew there were only 4 people in the room when the victim in our imaginary scenario died you could even go so far as that since only 2 of them have a potential match that you have a 50% confidence in the match. But Running the test 800 times will not get you to a number better than that.
- hashmymustache 14y agoExactly, that's why it helps to have multiple tests with different sensitivities and specificities for ruling people out and in, respectively. Whorls and a grip circumference of 14cm, say