3 ms·
Is there a formula you can use to convert between the two?
by dyno12345 13y ago
Is there a formula you can use to convert between the two?
- Evbn 13y agoBayes theorem. The problem is that it requires a prior, which is usually unknowable.
- Symmetry 13y agoYes, but you need to estimate a probability distribution across various types of coin biases first. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
- Symmetry 13y agoReading some other comments in this thread, I feel that I really ought to have included some more stuff here. There isn't actually such a thing as "the odds that the coin is fair." Either it's fair or it's not. What we can talk about is what probability we should ascribe to it being fair given what we know. Even a single coin flip will have a single result, uniquely determined by the way in which it is launched into the air and caught. Probabilities only exist in the presence of our ignorance of the actual facts, and some people consider probabilities to be themselves a measure of our ignorance of the world.
- dyno12345 13y agoOh I get it P(H0|observation) = P(observation|H0) * P(H0) / P(observation) P(observation) = P(observation|H0) * P(H0) + P(observation|!H0) * P(!H0) A normal significance test tells you P(observation|H0). [Though I'm not sure about P(observation|!H0)]. To apply Bayes' Rule you need P(H0), where P(H0)=???