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I repeatedly post this chart that shows life expectancy stratified by age to HN: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=longevity-why-we-die-global-l

I repeatedly post this chart that shows life expectancy stratified by age to HN: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=longevity-why-we-die-global-life-expectancy http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=longevity-w... I learned about this article from another participant's submission to Hacker News. I happen to be part of a "journal club" with a researcher who studies, among other things, demography of aging, and from him I've learned some startling facts about increases in life expectancy around the world. Girls born since 2000 in the developed world are more likely than not to reach the age of 100, with boys likely to enjoy lifespans almost as long. The article "The Biodemography of Human Ageing" by James Vaupel, http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/2eb51e2860ef54d218ce5ce19abe6a59/dc_biodemography_of_human_ageing_nature_2010_vaupel.pdf http://www.demographic-challenge.com/files/downloads/2eb51e2... originally published in the journal Nature in 2010, is a good current reference on the subject. Vaupel is one of the leading scholars on the demography of aging and how to adjust for time trends in life expectancy. His striking finding is "Humans are living longer than ever before. In fact, newborn children in high-income countries can expect to live to more than 100 years. Starting in the mid-1800s, human longevity has increased dramatically and life expectancy is increasing by an average of six hours a day." http://www.prb.org/Journalists/Webcasts/2010/humanlongevity.aspx http://www.prb.org/Journalists/Webcasts/2010/humanlongevity.... A comparison of period life expectancy tables and cohort life expectancy tables for men and women in Britain http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/period-and-cohort-life-expectancy-tables/2010-based/p-and-c-le.html http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/period-and-cohort-l... helps make the picture more clear. ("Period life expectancy" is what is usually reported for a whole country. But cohort life expectancy provides a better estimate of future lifespans of young people today, http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1963392_1963367,00.html http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1... and is still steadily on the rise around the world.) Life expectancy at age 40, at age 60, and at even higher ages is still rising throughout the developed countries of the world.

jessriedel 14y ago
From the Vaupel article: > If progress in reducing mortality continues at the same pace as it has over the past two centuries, which is a matter of debate, then in countries with high life expediencies most children born since the year 2000 will celebrate their 100th birthday — in the twenty-second century. Um, color me very skeptical. My guess is there is a lot more disagreement with the startling hypothetical "if progress in reducing mortality continues at the same pace as it has over the past two centuries" then the single reference after "debate" would have you believe. (italics mine)
jameshart 14y ago
That chart doesn't support the claim of centenarians becoming the norm, though. It shows that in the last 50 years in the US we've increased the life expectancy of an 80 year old by two years, from 86 to 88. extrapolating that linearly it suggests that children being born today will, if they live to 80 in the 2090s, have a life expectancy then of about 91, so while they may well expect to see the 22nd century dawn they won't generally get to see their hundredth birthday. This is backed up by the UK cohort life expectancy you gave which shows the current cohort life expectancy is still around 91-95, and doesn't extrapolate to predicting hundred-year lifespans even for children born 20 years in the future.

jessriedel 14y ago

From the Vaupel article: > If progress in reducing mortality continues at the same pace as it has over the past two centuries, which is a matter of debate, then in countries with high life expediencies most children born since the year 2000 will celebrate their 100th birthday — in the twenty-second century. Um, color me very skeptical. My guess is there is a lot more disagreement with the startling hypothetical "if progress in reducing mortality continues at the same pace as it has over the past two centuries" then the single reference after "debate" would have you believe. (italics mine)

jameshart 14y ago

That chart doesn't support the claim of centenarians becoming the norm, though. It shows that in the last 50 years in the US we've increased the life expectancy of an 80 year old by two years, from 86 to 88. extrapolating that linearly it suggests that children being born today will, if they live to 80 in the 2090s, have a life expectancy then of about 91, so while they may well expect to see the 22nd century dawn they won't generally get to see their hundredth birthday. This is backed up by the UK cohort life expectancy you gave which shows the current cohort life expectancy is still around 91-95, and doesn't extrapolate to predicting hundred-year lifespans even for children born 20 years in the future.