I don't buy the idea that they wouldn't need to come here, because their statistical models, based on remote observations of conditions, would be able to predic

I don't buy the idea that they wouldn't need to come here, because their statistical models, based on remote observations of conditions, would be able to predict everything they would find. I think we've learned enough about complexity and sensitive dependence on initial (and later) conditions to say that, unless we're wrong about complexity, the outcome of all these historical accidents wouldn't be predictable. They would still have to observe, meaning explore, to see what ended up actually happening around the universe and, in addition, they would never know for sure if they had already found all the Black Swans out there.