3 ms·
Using three estimates can help. Create optimistic, likely, and pessimistic estimates for each significant development task. Plug the values into the Program Eva
by thangalin 14y ago
Using three estimates can help. Create optimistic, likely, and pessimistic estimates for each significant development task. Plug the values into the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (pioneered from building Polaris nuclear submarines in the 1950s) to get a reasonable estimate:
t_{expected} = (t_{optimistic} + 4 \times t_{likely} + t_{pessimistic}) / 6
http://www.codecogs.com/latex/eqneditor.php http://www.codecogs.com/latex/eqneditor.php
This also helps indicate what tasks will take the longest, allowing managers to prioritize based on business needs.
- kybernetikos 14y agoWe used something a bit like this at IBM years ago. I'm pretty sure we weighted the pessimistic estimate higher than the likely estimate though.