3 ms·
I, too, cannot identify with this article. Maybe it's the fact that I'm really not overconfident about my abilities; in fact I usually underestimate them. Seco
by calinet6 14y ago
I, too, cannot identify with this article.
Maybe it's the fact that I'm really not overconfident about my abilities; in fact I usually underestimate them. Secondly, I'm quite a good estimator of all things, including project timelines. In fact, I've been asked to make timelines of various projects because I have a good grasp of all the factors.
I think that's the key. You need to understand most of what goes into the project—as well as how long it will take to learn and execute on the things you don't know.
You learn all this from experience doing your work, but I think more importantly, I am good at estimating timeframes because I have a broad knowledge of not only programming, but also human psychology, collaboration, motivation, social factors, and unknowns and doubts. It takes a little bit of the entire human experience to accurately paint a picture of what someone (or a team) is able to do. You need to understand the complex nature of the problem, and then use the facts rather than trusting your gut.
I have a good liberal arts education and fantastic parents to thank for this viewpoint (one of the reasons I still detest the insufferable anti-university movement—if you only learn what you need or want to know, you get a horrible education).
Am I overconfident in my ability to estimate? Probably. But no one cares, I'm usually right.
- rwallace 14y agoIf you read the linked Kahneman article, it actually addresses your comment. It's like the stock market: some percentage of traders will get lucky, and inevitably they will attribute their success to their judgment. No, wasting yet more years of your life sitting in classrooms does not confer the ability to predict the future. What does confer that ability, is being lucky enough to be handed a series of projects where the hard parts are relevantly similar to your previous projects and, fortunately, nothing went very wrong on the novel parts. And it's great that it worked out for you that way, but that doesn't mean the OP was wrong.
- spiffytech 14y agoWhile some people attribute their luck in the stock market to skill, it is still possible for someone to have actual skill in making money in the stock market. Some high-profile billionaires and numerous quants have demonstrated this. The fact that you made money doesn't mean your income is solely, or even primarily, attributable to luck. Likewise, it's possible the grandparent has been lucky that the projects they've forecasted aligned well with their areas of knowledge and hit no problematic snags. It's also possible, however, that one can develop the ability to make mostly-correct predictions about project timelines. Being a rarity doesn't mean it's flat-out impossible, or even unbelievably improbable.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]