6 ms·

Its likely that full-fledged Space Travel with reusable rockets will be possible in the coming years

InclinedPlane 14y ago
The pace of progress seems to have been faster than even SpaceX anticipated. Within the next year we'll see very significant tests of core components of the system and flight profile (for the first stage at least). The very next Falcon 9 flight (out of Vandenberg) will use the performance overhead provided by the v1.1 upgrade to do a controlled reentry of the 1st stage and then after it has reached terminal velocity it will slow down to a hover out over some remote part of the ocean, then splash down. This is a good and cheap test of a huge part of the flight profile. Meanwhile, the Grasshopper 2 will be more of a full-up Falcon 9 (v1.1) first stage, with 9 engines and will include retractable landing gear. Instead of testing controlled hovering and precision landing it'll go up to supersonic speeds and potentially up to 90km altitude. Essentially testing the return to launch site flight profile in a more realistic setting with more realistic hardware. And then if that proves fruitful they will essentially just stick that hardware into the Falcon 9 stack and do a full up orbital launch with a flyback 1st stage. Possibly within the next few years even. If that works it'll be rather amazing, since much of the cost of a launch is in the manufacture of those 9 engines on that first stage. Even if a reusable stage costs 3x as much as a regular stage and halves the payload capacity if they can get just 6 flights out of each one it'll break even, and if the numbers are more favorable they'll drop the floor out of the orbital launch market and then own it, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars a year in revenue (a feat they are already on their way to doing with their current lineup of rockets). Perhaps more profoundly it'll hasten the day when it will be conceivable to use kickstarter to fund an interplanetary science mission.
- luke_s 14y ago
  Thanks for the detailed rundown! If you don't mind me asking - where did you find all this out? I've been looking for a good source of SpaceX news. The official website/g+/facebook/etc just posts short updates whenever a mission occurs. I'm looking for news about what is on the horizon and more detailed analysis.
  - MartinMcGirk 14y ago
    I am also interested in this. I know where I can get detailed news and analysis in the Tech industry, but I haven't come across too many good resources for the space industry. If I could find great news sites or podcasts or similar I'd consume them like you wouldn't believe.
    - cdash 14y ago
      http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/ http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/ That is where you will find the best info for the space industry more than likely. A lot of the info is in the forums though and you will have to kind of hunt it down. They also have a private section of the site that you can pay to gain access that has a lot of insider info.
      - MartinMcGirk 14y ago
        Thanks for the link
  - chromaton 14y ago
    NewSpaceWatch focuses specifically on commercial companies trying to innovate in space travel: Armadillo, SpaceX, Bigelow, etc. http://www.newspacewatch.com/ http://www.newspacewatch.com/
    - nkoren 14y ago
      I second that recommendation. This is the successor to a site called "Hobbyspace" which was the best clearinghouse for all commercial space news since the mid-1990s. Although it was just a hobbyist's website, I have reason to believe that its comprehensive reporting and very clear-headed analysis actually bears some of the credit for catalysing the entire Newspace movement (eg., Elon Musk was a following and commenting there since before he founded SpaceX...).
      - luke_s 14y ago
- skorgu 14y ago
  And I haven't been this excited (nay, giddy) since I was about 6 and reading Space Colonies For Kids or whatever. I'm a bit worried about the bimodality of the future but man the good parts are going to be good.
  - StavrosK 14y ago
    Hopefully the bad parts will be okay too!
    - stcredzero 14y ago
      We already have many of the bad parts from cyberpunk books.
  - InclinedPlane 14y ago
    I'm pretty optimistic about the future. The information age is young yet and only recently starting to come into its first full stage of maturity. And there are a ton of very hopeful signs out there, especially in terms of long term trends. I think the chances that things will turn out well are actually higher than not doing so.
    - skorgu 14y ago
      Don't get me wrong, I'm optimistic myself. I'm just a bit concerned about how some poorly defined cohort of 'people who don't read HN' are going to fare; not all of those trends are looking super rosy.
      - InclinedPlane 14y ago
        Oh, certainly. There are a lot of scary trends right now, but there are also a lot of very positive trends. Personally I think the forces behind the latter are more powerful, but it's not exactly a sure thing necessarily. If someone told me that in 2070 the developed world was basically neo-feudalist with strong class divisions amidst an effectively world-wide police state I could easily believe it. I think there are a few major, mostly technological, developments which haven't happened yet but are essentially inevitable which will tend to tip things even stronger toward the "good" side. I should probably write about that at some point.
- marvin 14y ago
  Do you have more information on the "water landing" planned for the next Falcon 9 flight? Why won't the SpaceX team attempt to land it on some sort of floating platform? Seems to me that this would yield an even better test "for free" and even provide the possibility of recovering the first stage for analysis.
  - JshWright 14y ago
    The current Falcon 9 first stage doesn't have landing gear. That would make landing it on anything solid... problematic.
  - InclinedPlane 14y ago
    They'd have to add flight worthy landing gear, which hasn't been tested yet and would add weight. This test just uses a straight up stock Falcon 9 v1.1 first stage, so it's super low overhead. Also, they're not sure it'll work. But if it doesn't it just means they end up with what they were expecting, broken up first stage bits in the ocean. They do plan on retrieving the stage if possible, it should float.
- jessriedel 14y ago
  > The very next Falcon 9 flight (out of Vandenberg) will use the performance overhead provided by the v1.1 upgrade to do a controlled reentry of the 1st stage and then after it has reached terminal velocity it will slow down to a hover out over some remote part of the ocean, then splash down. This is a good and cheap test of a huge part of the flight profile. Could you explain the first part a bit more, or point me somewhere? How was is the first stage going? Does it need a heat shield? EDIT: Ha, looks like a lot of people had the same question at the same time.
  - JshWright 14y ago
    The first stage of almost any launch system wouldn't need a heat shield for reentry. The second stage absolutely would.
    - jessriedel 14y ago
      Any idea how fast it's going when the first stage separates?
rplnt 14y ago
I believe same thing was done by NASA in the 70s. So not really big step forward in this particular regard. edit: Can't find it at the moment. So far I've found http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X which did what grasshopper and more almost 20 years back. I still believe I've read something earlier though. Will edit when/if I find it.
- EthanHeilman 14y ago
  [citation needed]
- jerf 14y ago
  No. It was a stated goal of the Space Shuttle project, but it failed. Had the Space Shuttle been a commercial venture it would have been abandoned decades ago; other than the fact that it generally worked (which, to be clear, is saying something, that's not guaranteed), it was an awful design.
  - rplnt 14y ago
    Can't edit the parent post anymore, indeed I was wrong, but only about the year. The project I've added however is around 20 years old, so I still don't find Grasshopper revolutionary in this one aspect - reusable VTVL rocket.
- derekp7 14y ago
  Are you referring to that neat trick they pulled a half dozen times, where they landed a rocket on its tail in an airless environment with 1/6 gravity? That was still pretty impressive on a bunch of other levels.
  - rplnt 14y ago
    No, I'm referring to on-earth tests, such as this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv9n9Casp1o http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv9n9Casp1o However I can't find the exact one I had in mind, or perhaps I was off with the date.

The pace of progress seems to have been faster than even SpaceX anticipated. Within the next year we'll see very significant tests of core components of the system and flight profile (for the first stage at least). The very next Falcon 9 flight (out of Vandenberg) will use the performance overhead provided by the v1.1 upgrade to do a controlled reentry of the 1st stage and then after it has reached terminal velocity it will slow down to a hover out over some remote part of the ocean, then splash down. This is a good and cheap test of a huge part of the flight profile. Meanwhile, the Grasshopper 2 will be more of a full-up Falcon 9 (v1.1) first stage, with 9 engines and will include retractable landing gear. Instead of testing controlled hovering and precision landing it'll go up to supersonic speeds and potentially up to 90km altitude. Essentially testing the return to launch site flight profile in a more realistic setting with more realistic hardware. And then if that proves fruitful they will essentially just stick that hardware into the Falcon 9 stack and do a full up orbital launch with a flyback 1st stage. Possibly within the next few years even. If that works it'll be rather amazing, since much of the cost of a launch is in the manufacture of those 9 engines on that first stage. Even if a reusable stage costs 3x as much as a regular stage and halves the payload capacity if they can get just 6 flights out of each one it'll break even, and if the numbers are more favorable they'll drop the floor out of the orbital launch market and then own it, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars a year in revenue (a feat they are already on their way to doing with their current lineup of rockets). Perhaps more profoundly it'll hasten the day when it will be conceivable to use kickstarter to fund an interplanetary science mission.

luke_s 14y ago
Thanks for the detailed rundown! If you don't mind me asking - where did you find all this out? I've been looking for a good source of SpaceX news. The official website/g+/facebook/etc just posts short updates whenever a mission occurs. I'm looking for news about what is on the horizon and more detailed analysis.
- MartinMcGirk 14y ago
  I am also interested in this. I know where I can get detailed news and analysis in the Tech industry, but I haven't come across too many good resources for the space industry. If I could find great news sites or podcasts or similar I'd consume them like you wouldn't believe.
  - cdash 14y ago
    http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/ http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/ That is where you will find the best info for the space industry more than likely. A lot of the info is in the forums though and you will have to kind of hunt it down. They also have a private section of the site that you can pay to gain access that has a lot of insider info.
    - MartinMcGirk 14y ago
      Thanks for the link
- chromaton 14y ago
  NewSpaceWatch focuses specifically on commercial companies trying to innovate in space travel: Armadillo, SpaceX, Bigelow, etc. http://www.newspacewatch.com/ http://www.newspacewatch.com/
  - nkoren 14y ago
    I second that recommendation. This is the successor to a site called "Hobbyspace" which was the best clearinghouse for all commercial space news since the mid-1990s. Although it was just a hobbyist's website, I have reason to believe that its comprehensive reporting and very clear-headed analysis actually bears some of the credit for catalysing the entire Newspace movement (eg., Elon Musk was a following and commenting there since before he founded SpaceX...).
    - luke_s 14y ago
skorgu 14y ago
And I haven't been this excited (nay, giddy) since I was about 6 and reading Space Colonies For Kids or whatever. I'm a bit worried about the bimodality of the future but man the good parts are going to be good.
- StavrosK 14y ago
  Hopefully the bad parts will be okay too!
  - stcredzero 14y ago
    We already have many of the bad parts from cyberpunk books.
- InclinedPlane 14y ago
  I'm pretty optimistic about the future. The information age is young yet and only recently starting to come into its first full stage of maturity. And there are a ton of very hopeful signs out there, especially in terms of long term trends. I think the chances that things will turn out well are actually higher than not doing so.
  - skorgu 14y ago
    Don't get me wrong, I'm optimistic myself. I'm just a bit concerned about how some poorly defined cohort of 'people who don't read HN' are going to fare; not all of those trends are looking super rosy.
    - InclinedPlane 14y ago
      Oh, certainly. There are a lot of scary trends right now, but there are also a lot of very positive trends. Personally I think the forces behind the latter are more powerful, but it's not exactly a sure thing necessarily. If someone told me that in 2070 the developed world was basically neo-feudalist with strong class divisions amidst an effectively world-wide police state I could easily believe it. I think there are a few major, mostly technological, developments which haven't happened yet but are essentially inevitable which will tend to tip things even stronger toward the "good" side. I should probably write about that at some point.
marvin 14y ago
Do you have more information on the "water landing" planned for the next Falcon 9 flight? Why won't the SpaceX team attempt to land it on some sort of floating platform? Seems to me that this would yield an even better test "for free" and even provide the possibility of recovering the first stage for analysis.
- JshWright 14y ago
  The current Falcon 9 first stage doesn't have landing gear. That would make landing it on anything solid... problematic.
- InclinedPlane 14y ago
  They'd have to add flight worthy landing gear, which hasn't been tested yet and would add weight. This test just uses a straight up stock Falcon 9 v1.1 first stage, so it's super low overhead. Also, they're not sure it'll work. But if it doesn't it just means they end up with what they were expecting, broken up first stage bits in the ocean. They do plan on retrieving the stage if possible, it should float.
jessriedel 14y ago
> The very next Falcon 9 flight (out of Vandenberg) will use the performance overhead provided by the v1.1 upgrade to do a controlled reentry of the 1st stage and then after it has reached terminal velocity it will slow down to a hover out over some remote part of the ocean, then splash down. This is a good and cheap test of a huge part of the flight profile. Could you explain the first part a bit more, or point me somewhere? How was is the first stage going? Does it need a heat shield? EDIT: Ha, looks like a lot of people had the same question at the same time.
- JshWright 14y ago
  The first stage of almost any launch system wouldn't need a heat shield for reentry. The second stage absolutely would.
  - jessriedel 14y ago
    Any idea how fast it's going when the first stage separates?

rplnt 14y ago

I believe same thing was done by NASA in the 70s. So not really big step forward in this particular regard. edit: Can't find it at the moment. So far I've found http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_DC-X which did what grasshopper and more almost 20 years back. I still believe I've read something earlier though. Will edit when/if I find it.

EthanHeilman 14y ago
[citation needed]
jerf 14y ago
No. It was a stated goal of the Space Shuttle project, but it failed. Had the Space Shuttle been a commercial venture it would have been abandoned decades ago; other than the fact that it generally worked (which, to be clear, is saying something, that's not guaranteed), it was an awful design.
- rplnt 14y ago
  Can't edit the parent post anymore, indeed I was wrong, but only about the year. The project I've added however is around 20 years old, so I still don't find Grasshopper revolutionary in this one aspect - reusable VTVL rocket.
derekp7 14y ago
Are you referring to that neat trick they pulled a half dozen times, where they landed a rocket on its tail in an airless environment with 1/6 gravity? That was still pretty impressive on a bunch of other levels.
- rplnt 14y ago
  No, I'm referring to on-earth tests, such as this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv9n9Casp1o http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv9n9Casp1o However I can't find the exact one I had in mind, or perhaps I was off with the date.