3 ms·

Given that you're looking at a number of 1 in 150 kids and we're looking at a drop of of ~35 per 150 miles... I'd say ... prrrrrroooobably not a big part of tha

Given that you're looking at a number of 1 in 150 kids and we're looking at a drop of of ~35 per 150 miles... I'd say ... prrrrrroooobably not a big part of that number.

Mz 14y ago
Eh, maybe, maybe not. Someone replied, suggesting 1 in 88 is a more accurate figure. Ballpark rounding and all, that's nearly 2 in 150. If it accounts for 2-ish miles of that 35 out of 150, that's in the neighborhood of 5%. That sounds like a lot to me for a single condition. Quite a lot.
- trhtrsh 14y ago
  ASD wasn't created in the past 20 years, it has just seen a great increase in diagnosis.
  - Mz 14y ago
    Oh, I think it's a tad more complicated than that.
- fennecfoxen 14y ago
  1 in 150 is consistent with what Wikipedia said (6 in 1000). As we all know, Wikipedia KNOWS EVERYTHING and is NEVER WRONG. cough As other people have commented, it's also unclear to what extent this represents increased diagnosis or actually increased levels of the condition; to the extent that it is the former, it's not clear what amount of driving-reduction that translates to. Finally, it's worth noting that there's a 20+ year lag between the conception of a kid who will have an autistic spectrum disorder someday and the day when he or she will be in the twenty-somethings statistical bucket; I'm not sure how that maps onto proposed increases in the incidence of autistic spectrum disorders but we are talking about cohort-1996 and earlier so insofar as there has been an increase in the past few years it's not relevant yet. And even if it is 5%, and even if that is a lot given that it's a single disorder, what of the rest of the statistic that's 19 times as big? I'll just go out on a limb and guess that at least half of the change is primarily related to economic circumstance and not incidence of some disease or disorder.
  - Mz 14y ago
    As an environmental studies major, yeah, duh, I am sure the Hubbert Peak stuff jacking up the price of gas is one of the primary causes. I wasn't suggesting autism was a primary mover of numbers here. I am baffled by the essentially hostile reaction it is getting for me to wonder out loud about that as a factor though. Did curiosity get outlawed on Hacker News? My understanding was that satisfying one's curiosity was a primary value here. Sheesh.

Given that you're looking at a number of 1 in 150 kids and we're looking at a drop of of ~35 per 150 miles... I'd say ... prrrrrroooobably not a big part of that number.

Mz 14y ago

Eh, maybe, maybe not. Someone replied, suggesting 1 in 88 is a more accurate figure. Ballpark rounding and all, that's nearly 2 in 150. If it accounts for 2-ish miles of that 35 out of 150, that's in the neighborhood of 5%. That sounds like a lot to me for a single condition. Quite a lot.

trhtrsh 14y ago
ASD wasn't created in the past 20 years, it has just seen a great increase in diagnosis.
- Mz 14y ago
  Oh, I think it's a tad more complicated than that.
fennecfoxen 14y ago
1 in 150 is consistent with what Wikipedia said (6 in 1000). As we all know, Wikipedia KNOWS EVERYTHING and is NEVER WRONG. cough As other people have commented, it's also unclear to what extent this represents increased diagnosis or actually increased levels of the condition; to the extent that it is the former, it's not clear what amount of driving-reduction that translates to. Finally, it's worth noting that there's a 20+ year lag between the conception of a kid who will have an autistic spectrum disorder someday and the day when he or she will be in the twenty-somethings statistical bucket; I'm not sure how that maps onto proposed increases in the incidence of autistic spectrum disorders but we are talking about cohort-1996 and earlier so insofar as there has been an increase in the past few years it's not relevant yet. And even if it is 5%, and even if that is a lot given that it's a single disorder, what of the rest of the statistic that's 19 times as big? I'll just go out on a limb and guess that at least half of the change is primarily related to economic circumstance and not incidence of some disease or disorder.
- Mz 14y ago
  As an environmental studies major, yeah, duh, I am sure the Hubbert Peak stuff jacking up the price of gas is one of the primary causes. I wasn't suggesting autism was a primary mover of numbers here. I am baffled by the essentially hostile reaction it is getting for me to wonder out loud about that as a factor though. Did curiosity get outlawed on Hacker News? My understanding was that satisfying one's curiosity was a primary value here. Sheesh.