4 ms·

It looks like it is actually working. I pulled this data from the CDC's website[1] for auto-related fatalities for Americans aged 14-19 (population is total # o

It looks like it is actually working. I pulled this data from the CDC's website[1] for auto-related fatalities for Americans aged 14-19 (population is total # of teenagers): YEAR DEATHS POPULATION 1999 5,508 24,099,614 2000 5,561 24,272,121 2001 5,513 24,515,654 2002 5,943 24,742,879 2003 5,582 25,019,050 2004 5,564 25,510,811 2005 5,234 25,839,430 2006 5,186 26,116,159 2007 4,986 26,327,320 2008 4,067 26,408,974 2009 3,514 26,378,690 2010 3,159 26,206,325 [1]http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_us.html http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_us.html

w1ntermute 14y ago
Doesn't that need to be normalized by the change in the auto fatality rate for the whole population? I recall that fatalities have dropped off for everyone because of advances in safety technology in cars.
- nitrogen 14y ago
  Another factor to consider is the continual improvements in roads. For example, when I was younger, the main local freeway narrowed to two lanes with a dangerously sharp turn between me and the nearest major city. Over the past decade+, the freeway has constantly widened, with easier, more sweeping turns, better banking, better surface texture and maintenance, etc.
mechagodzilla 14y ago
It probably should be normalized in many different ways (but if we hypothesize that teenagers are dangerous drivers, taking teenagers off the road would reduce both the teenage fatality rate and the fatality rate of the general population).
littlegiantcap 14y ago
Couldn't these things just be increasingly safe car designs? When I started driving in 2005 side curtain airbags weren't even that common much less all the safety features we have today.
SatvikBeri 14y ago
We can use the data here to normalize against the decrease in auto fatalities across the entire population: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1103.pdf http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1103.p... From 2000 to 2009, the # of traffic-related deaths per 100,000 resident population dropped by 26%. Assuming the decay is exponential, that's about 3% per year. In contrast, the # of teen deaths dropped by about 4.5% per year. So we can reasonably conclude that teenage auto-related deaths are falling at a faster rate than overall auto-related deaths.
- hiddenfeatures 14y ago
  +1 for the effort. Interesting development
- andrewfelix 14y ago
  Analysis and responses like this is what makes HN great.
- jerf 14y ago
  Thank you.
- Zak 14y ago
  What I'm curious about is the fatality rates for new drivers regardless of age. Is the fatality rate for all inexperienced drivers dropping the way it is for teenagers? If not, that suggests that the apparent improvements aren't so significant as they seem. In particular, social and regulatory changes that make it more difficult for teenagers to drive, but not for young adults may only shift what age group the problem affects.
cmsmith 14y ago
The other sibling comments on the interpretation of this data are accurate, but my biggest problem with it is this: If you reduce the driving privileges of people with blue eyes, I'm sure that the auto-related fatalities of blue-eyed people would decrease. I'm not sure of the correct way to measure the success of driving restrictions, but I would suggest that it is something other than this type of statistic.
- saraid216 14y ago
  I don't think that's incorrect though. If there exists a mushroom that tends to be lethal in even small quantities and its usage in recipes is restricted, then the fatalities caused by it will go down. You might disagree with the method on deontological grounds, but you can't really deny that it is functioning well on consequentialist grounds.

w1ntermute 14y ago

Doesn't that need to be normalized by the change in the auto fatality rate for the whole population? I recall that fatalities have dropped off for everyone because of advances in safety technology in cars.

nitrogen 14y ago
Another factor to consider is the continual improvements in roads. For example, when I was younger, the main local freeway narrowed to two lanes with a dangerously sharp turn between me and the nearest major city. Over the past decade+, the freeway has constantly widened, with easier, more sweeping turns, better banking, better surface texture and maintenance, etc.

mechagodzilla 14y ago

It probably should be normalized in many different ways (but if we hypothesize that teenagers are dangerous drivers, taking teenagers off the road would reduce both the teenage fatality rate and the fatality rate of the general population).

littlegiantcap 14y ago

Couldn't these things just be increasingly safe car designs? When I started driving in 2005 side curtain airbags weren't even that common much less all the safety features we have today.

SatvikBeri 14y ago

We can use the data here to normalize against the decrease in auto fatalities across the entire population: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1103.pdf http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1103.p... From 2000 to 2009, the # of traffic-related deaths per 100,000 resident population dropped by 26%. Assuming the decay is exponential, that's about 3% per year. In contrast, the # of teen deaths dropped by about 4.5% per year. So we can reasonably conclude that teenage auto-related deaths are falling at a faster rate than overall auto-related deaths.

hiddenfeatures 14y ago
+1 for the effort. Interesting development
andrewfelix 14y ago
Analysis and responses like this is what makes HN great.
jerf 14y ago
Thank you.
Zak 14y ago
What I'm curious about is the fatality rates for new drivers regardless of age. Is the fatality rate for all inexperienced drivers dropping the way it is for teenagers? If not, that suggests that the apparent improvements aren't so significant as they seem. In particular, social and regulatory changes that make it more difficult for teenagers to drive, but not for young adults may only shift what age group the problem affects.

cmsmith 14y ago

The other sibling comments on the interpretation of this data are accurate, but my biggest problem with it is this: If you reduce the driving privileges of people with blue eyes, I'm sure that the auto-related fatalities of blue-eyed people would decrease. I'm not sure of the correct way to measure the success of driving restrictions, but I would suggest that it is something other than this type of statistic.

saraid216 14y ago
I don't think that's incorrect though. If there exists a mushroom that tends to be lethal in even small quantities and its usage in recipes is restricted, then the fatalities caused by it will go down. You might disagree with the method on deontological grounds, but you can't really deny that it is functioning well on consequentialist grounds.