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Facts everyone should know about oil exploration

5 points by bumbledraven 14y ago

dredmorbius 14y ago
This is a great piece for putting the energy problem into stark perspective. I do quibble with a few of the arguments and some numbers. Of the numbers presented by Ms. Carlyle, the one that's probably most arguable is the growth rate of solar. Installed capacity (that's a measure of peak output, not actual power production, more later) is doubling about every 3 years, not the 10 she suggests. Solar energy capacity (power output, in GW) translates to energy output (GWh) based on capacity factor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor). This varies by type of solar (it's higher for concentrated solar power, CSP, lower for photovoltaics, PV), and siting. A low range of 13% for PV in Massachusets, a high of 75% for CSP in Spain. Let's call it 15% on average (conservative but realistic). Global solar capacity was around 69 GWm in 2012. Let's call that 7 GW after capacity factor. Oil produces roughly 500x more power at present, or 9 doubling periods. If solar output doubles every 3 years, we might be able to match existing oil capacity within 27 years. That's not great, but it's within reason, and may be soon enough. There are other tools in the toolbox: nuclear, particularly in the form of thorium or TerraPower reactors. Wind. Perhaps even large-scale geothermal development (Iceland, Kenya, Japan, New Zealand, Italy, Indonesia, the Philippines, and US all have significant developments in the 500 - 3000 MW range). Anathema though it might be to the wilderness crowd, the Yellowstone caldera represents an immense potentially for development, and unlike many other geothermal opportunities, is within transmission range of significant population and industrial centers. The other problem with oil, of course, is that nagging little climate problem. Yonatan Zunger posted a charmingly bleak piece on that here: https://plus.google.com/103389452828130864950/posts/SgzQU5DM3LQ https://plus.google.com/103389452828130864950/posts/SgzQU5DM...

5 points by bumbledraven 14y ago

This is a great piece for putting the energy problem into stark perspective. I do quibble with a few of the arguments and some numbers. Of the numbers presented by Ms. Carlyle, the one that's probably most arguable is the growth rate of solar. Installed capacity (that's a measure of peak output, not actual power production, more later) is doubling about every 3 years, not the 10 she suggests. Solar energy capacity (power output, in GW) translates to energy output (GWh) based on capacity factor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor). This varies by type of solar (it's higher for concentrated solar power, CSP, lower for photovoltaics, PV), and siting. A low range of 13% for PV in Massachusets, a high of 75% for CSP in Spain. Let's call it 15% on average (conservative but realistic). Global solar capacity was around 69 GWm in 2012. Let's call that 7 GW after capacity factor. Oil produces roughly 500x more power at present, or 9 doubling periods. If solar output doubles every 3 years, we might be able to match existing oil capacity within 27 years. That's not great, but it's within reason, and may be soon enough. There are other tools in the toolbox: nuclear, particularly in the form of thorium or TerraPower reactors. Wind. Perhaps even large-scale geothermal development (Iceland, Kenya, Japan, New Zealand, Italy, Indonesia, the Philippines, and US all have significant developments in the 500 - 3000 MW range). Anathema though it might be to the wilderness crowd, the Yellowstone caldera represents an immense potentially for development, and unlike many other geothermal opportunities, is within transmission range of significant population and industrial centers. The other problem with oil, of course, is that nagging little climate problem. Yonatan Zunger posted a charmingly bleak piece on that here: https://plus.google.com/103389452828130864950/posts/SgzQU5DM3LQ https://plus.google.com/103389452828130864950/posts/SgzQU5DM...