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Something to consider: it worked. It would still be presumptuous, but at least a little less misdirected, to Monday-morning-quarterback a team that lost the gam

Something to consider: it worked. It would still be presumptuous, but at least a little less misdirected, to Monday-morning-quarterback a team that lost the game.

nekojima 14y ago
It didn't work, as the suspect was discovered after the curfew was over, by a man who had been inside his house all day. Had the man been outside his house earlier in the day, and seen the cover of his boat, its all but likely the suspect could have been apprehended 8-12 hours earlier.
- sopooneo 14y ago
  I'm talking black box QA. Input is suspect identified. Output is that inside 24 hours they had him alive. Every particular possible outcome has some set of strategy changes that, in retrospect, would have made apprehension quicker. But this success was reached without the benefit of clairvoyance.
- awwstn 14y ago
  Worked === Intended outcome achieved At the point when the lockdown started, the intended outcome was likely to catch the suspect without any more death, injury or destruction. It worked. You can speculate as to whether it would have also worked with a different approach, but you can't say the selected approach didn't work.
  - Camillo 14y ago
    And all this time I thought that post hoc ergo propter hoc was a fallacy!
Pitarou 14y ago
> Something to consider: it worked. Damn right it worked. INPUT: pressure cookers and gunpowder OUTPUT: front page headlines around the world; whole city gets shut down That's pretty damn effective. And it's all thanks to the multiplying effect of hysterical overreaction. --- EDIT: Updated my description of the bomb, in response to comments below.
- anigbrowl 14y ago
  INPUT: pressure cooker and household chemicals Actually, I don't keep any gunpowder under my sink. Why are you deliberately mischaracterizing the inciting incident, and omitting the rather significant context that it involved multiple detonations at a public event? OUTPUT: front page headlines around the world; whole city gets shut down Front page headlines - so what, we should censor the news now? As for a city shutdown, that could just as easily be interpreted as 'whole city cooperates to catch bombing suspect.'
  - Pitarou 14y ago
    > Actually, I don't keep any gunpowder under my sink.... Thanks for pointing that out. I've updated my description of the bombs. > ... omitting the rather significant context ... That's kind of my point. The terrorists chose to plant the bomb at a marathon rather than, say, a deserted wilderness, to maximise the reaction. Do you think the presence of dozens of video cameras was a factor in the bombers' calculations? > As for a city shutdown, that could just as easily be interpreted as 'whole city cooperates to catch bombing suspect.' And this is where I disagree. Much of the shutdown was, in one way or another, directed from the top.
    - anigbrowl 14y ago
      That's kind of my point. The terrorists chose to plant the bomb at a marathon rather than, say, a deserted wilderness, to maximise the reaction. Do you think the presence of dozens of video cameras was a factor in the bombers' calculations? Of course, but what are we supposed to do - impose a news blackout as China does in Tibet? directed from the top I feel fine about that. Coordination isn't the same as coercion, and there was no curfew or mandatory aspect to this.
- sliverstorm 14y ago
  Yeah, I'm sure the 19 year old bleeding in the boat was feeling pretty victorious. I'm sure shutting down Boston for a day was basically his life's goal. If the goal of terrorists is to make Americans live in fear every day, it certainly seems to me like they are losing, badly. If the goal is to make Americans uneasy for a day, whatever. I have no problems admitting I am uneasy about a guy roaming the neighborhood, armed and running from the cops. Did the terrorists just win when I admitted that?

Something to consider: it worked. It would still be presumptuous, but at least a little less misdirected, to Monday-morning-quarterback a team that lost the game.

nekojima 14y ago

It didn't work, as the suspect was discovered after the curfew was over, by a man who had been inside his house all day. Had the man been outside his house earlier in the day, and seen the cover of his boat, its all but likely the suspect could have been apprehended 8-12 hours earlier.

sopooneo 14y ago
I'm talking black box QA. Input is suspect identified. Output is that inside 24 hours they had him alive. Every particular possible outcome has some set of strategy changes that, in retrospect, would have made apprehension quicker. But this success was reached without the benefit of clairvoyance.
awwstn 14y ago
Worked === Intended outcome achieved At the point when the lockdown started, the intended outcome was likely to catch the suspect without any more death, injury or destruction. It worked. You can speculate as to whether it would have also worked with a different approach, but you can't say the selected approach didn't work.
- Camillo 14y ago
  And all this time I thought that post hoc ergo propter hoc was a fallacy!

Pitarou 14y ago

> Something to consider: it worked. Damn right it worked. INPUT: pressure cookers and gunpowder OUTPUT: front page headlines around the world; whole city gets shut down That's pretty damn effective. And it's all thanks to the multiplying effect of hysterical overreaction. --- EDIT: Updated my description of the bomb, in response to comments below.

anigbrowl 14y ago
INPUT: pressure cooker and household chemicals Actually, I don't keep any gunpowder under my sink. Why are you deliberately mischaracterizing the inciting incident, and omitting the rather significant context that it involved multiple detonations at a public event? OUTPUT: front page headlines around the world; whole city gets shut down Front page headlines - so what, we should censor the news now? As for a city shutdown, that could just as easily be interpreted as 'whole city cooperates to catch bombing suspect.'
- Pitarou 14y ago
  > Actually, I don't keep any gunpowder under my sink.... Thanks for pointing that out. I've updated my description of the bombs. > ... omitting the rather significant context ... That's kind of my point. The terrorists chose to plant the bomb at a marathon rather than, say, a deserted wilderness, to maximise the reaction. Do you think the presence of dozens of video cameras was a factor in the bombers' calculations? > As for a city shutdown, that could just as easily be interpreted as 'whole city cooperates to catch bombing suspect.' And this is where I disagree. Much of the shutdown was, in one way or another, directed from the top.
  - anigbrowl 14y ago
    That's kind of my point. The terrorists chose to plant the bomb at a marathon rather than, say, a deserted wilderness, to maximise the reaction. Do you think the presence of dozens of video cameras was a factor in the bombers' calculations? Of course, but what are we supposed to do - impose a news blackout as China does in Tibet? directed from the top I feel fine about that. Coordination isn't the same as coercion, and there was no curfew or mandatory aspect to this.
sliverstorm 14y ago
Yeah, I'm sure the 19 year old bleeding in the boat was feeling pretty victorious. I'm sure shutting down Boston for a day was basically his life's goal. If the goal of terrorists is to make Americans live in fear every day, it certainly seems to me like they are losing, badly. If the goal is to make Americans uneasy for a day, whatever. I have no problems admitting I am uneasy about a guy roaming the neighborhood, armed and running from the cops. Did the terrorists just win when I admitted that?