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More CO2 --> warmer is understood pretty well. What is not understood where else the gas can go and what feedback mechanisms there are. A climate model is very
by kaybe 14y ago
More CO2 --> warmer is understood pretty well. What is not understood where else the gas can go and what feedback mechanisms there are.
A climate model is very complex, and it is build on basic premises, which can all be tested separately (like the CO2 part). Some points remain unclear:
For example, a great part of the CO2 that has already been emitted has apparently gone into the ocean (which will lead to acidification, another problem). The ocean has a turn-over time of about 1000 years, so we can expect more uptake. On the other hand, a warmer ocean can dissolve less gas. ..it's a very long list of interleaved issues, and small changes of parameters (whose values are not known precisely) can change big things. Great care is taken in making these models. Scientists are usually not interested in politics very much. Even if a few had an agenda, they wouldn't manage to push a made-up idea.
Btw, the solar influence is also factored in (see [1]). The next ice age would be due soon, but it won't happen due to the CO2 (a good thing, I reckon).
Looking at the climate history of our planet is a scary thing since it is far from stable. It appears that there are periods where the whole globe was covered in ice, and periods where it was very much warmer than today. It's ok for life, but not for individual species such as us who have build their civilisation on one specific situation (precipitation patterns!). In the long run, we will have to manage/stabilize the climate anyway, so research is needed either way.
disclaimer:
I study and do research in this area. If I could show there was no problem, I'd be a hero; nobody of us wants this. My professors seem to have given up on the issue at this point.
Can I answer some questions or is this a lost battle as it is so very often?
[1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles