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Calling the Bitcoin Bubble "final refutation of the efficient-markets hypothesis" is a stretch. MtGox is opaque and illiquid for something that looks like a st
by bcoates 13y ago
Calling the Bitcoin Bubble "final refutation of the efficient-markets hypothesis" is a stretch. MtGox is opaque and illiquid for something that looks like a stock market, and the market is tiny and centered around the very long-shot possibility of distant future value.
If you can't arbitrage a a market, EMH puts no bounds on how wrong it can be, and mtgox is very difficult to arbitrage, so the price wanders around chaotically between prices extreme enough to actually make risk-adjusted profit off them.
The situation for options/futures is even worse than at mtgox, and a broad acceptance of bucket shop behaviors based on mtgox market feeds can't be helping. From top to bottom, this is not a market oriented towards the efficient discovery of prices.
- bayesianhorse 13y agoI think the main point about the EMH and Bitcoin is that a market can be quite efficient without anyone knowing that it is efficient or why this is so...