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I don't know much about Bayesian statistics, but wouldn't it be "terrorist, given Arabic descent AND participation in the targeted event AND proximity to the ex

by vadman 13y ago

I don't know much about Bayesian statistics, but wouldn't it be "terrorist, given Arabic descent AND participation in the targeted event AND proximity to the explosion AND high probability of a follow up explosion (judging from past events) AND ..."?

jlgreco 13y ago
> wouldn't it be "terrorist, given Arabic descent AND participation in the targeted event AND proximity to the explosion AND high probability of a follow up explosion (judging from past events) AND ..." The only thing that man has over the likely thousands of others that in some way participated in the event is his skin color. Everyone else there had those same properties. So if we are considering the population of people in the general area at the time, then no. They used only his descent. They, and djanogo[edited], used P(arabic|terrorist) to justify a search. In order to justify a search you need a reasonable P(terrorist|arabic). Assign some reasonable numbers to each factor off the top of your head, work it out on a napkin, and come back to me with whatever figures work out to be over whatever a reasonable threshold might be.
- vadman 13y ago
  Actually I didn't justify anything, just asked a question. Your explanation makes sense, thanks.
  - jlgreco 13y ago
    Oh, sorry. Confused you for djanogo, my bad.
danenania 13y ago
Given that the coordinated way the two bombs exploded indicates that they probably didn't malfunction, it seems like proximity to the explosion should be a negative indicator, no?
- jlgreco 13y ago
  It's probably a tossup. How much time can you usually put on a kitchen timer, an hour? Cut off the few minutes the timer would have had to be set early (since the timer presumably was not started when the bombs were placed, since that would be pretty conspicuous). That puts the guy at most an hours distance away, which granted, could be many miles. If the bombs were really placed in backpacks that were left sitting on the ground, I would further suspect that the bomber placed them much later an hour before. Wouldn't want someone to steal your bomb... Furthermore, maybe the sick fuck wanted to watch so he stuck around at a short distance instead of booking it. Who knows.

by vadman 13y ago

jlgreco 13y ago

> wouldn't it be "terrorist, given Arabic descent AND participation in the targeted event AND proximity to the explosion AND high probability of a follow up explosion (judging from past events) AND ..." The only thing that man has over the likely thousands of others that in some way participated in the event is his skin color. Everyone else there had those same properties. So if we are considering the population of people in the general area at the time, then no. They used only his descent. They, and djanogo[edited], used P(arabic|terrorist) to justify a search. In order to justify a search you need a reasonable P(terrorist|arabic). Assign some reasonable numbers to each factor off the top of your head, work it out on a napkin, and come back to me with whatever figures work out to be over whatever a reasonable threshold might be.

vadman 13y ago
Actually I didn't justify anything, just asked a question. Your explanation makes sense, thanks.
- jlgreco 13y ago
  Oh, sorry. Confused you for djanogo, my bad.

danenania 13y ago

Given that the coordinated way the two bombs exploded indicates that they probably didn't malfunction, it seems like proximity to the explosion should be a negative indicator, no?

jlgreco 13y ago
It's probably a tossup. How much time can you usually put on a kitchen timer, an hour? Cut off the few minutes the timer would have had to be set early (since the timer presumably was not started when the bombs were placed, since that would be pretty conspicuous). That puts the guy at most an hours distance away, which granted, could be many miles. If the bombs were really placed in backpacks that were left sitting on the ground, I would further suspect that the bomber placed them much later an hour before. Wouldn't want someone to steal your bomb... Furthermore, maybe the sick fuck wanted to watch so he stuck around at a short distance instead of booking it. Who knows.