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Hi, my original reply was too short, sorry. If you had said you bought BTC at $88 and sold at $260, I would have thought cool, good job. But you didn't stop th
by b6 14y ago
Hi, my original reply was too short, sorry.
If you had said you bought BTC at $88 and sold at $260, I would have thought cool, good job. But you didn't stop there. You said it wasn't hard, you just used common sense. That's when my alarm bells went off and my brain started printing you a "Congratulations, you have been fooled by randomness" certificate to put on your wall.
I'm not saying you are not really smart. I'm not saying your reasoning was wrong. Maybe you did get it totally right, and for the right reasons. But in another dimension, you bought at $88 and it went down to $20. Or you sold at $260 right before it went to $1000.
You placed a bet and this time you won, and I'm glad. But you seem to think you won because you fully understood. That's almost certainly wrong. That's why the guy wrote the book. That's pretty much all his book says.
"Yep, yep, I just thought it through and used my brain and kept my eyes open and placed my trade and made a big profit, not too hard really" -> fooled by randomness.
- fossuser 14y agoObviously it involves some luck and you can't know everything - but you can make a guess based on what you see happening that the price will go up for a little bit before going down and that guess isn't made in a vacuum. In this case there was an enormous amount of hype and articles had just started pouring out about it with the price jumping from $47 up to $88 very quickly. It seemed likely it would increase for some time before the drop. I'm not saying I just used 'common sense' (which is a bullshit term), but that you can make a guess about what will happen and then just cash out immediately when things start to turn south. It has nothing to do with being smart - just paying attention, making a guess based on what's going on and getting a little lucky.