...and the main flaw of this still remains: we don't know the probabilities of a very advanced civilization running a simulation because we can have no idea of

...and the main flaw of this still remains: we don't know the probabilities of a very advanced civilization running a simulation because we can have no idea of whether this would be interesting for them to do, we can't predict what would their goals and motivations be. Out great-great-...-great-grandchildren will not just be super-smart versions of us, they will have concepts and goals we cannot even imagine! A simulation of us, depressing as it may be to think it this way, would be just as interesting for them as an ant-farm to a little boy - he'd get bored of it quickly because he's as far away evolutionary speaking from ants as these super-iteligent beings would be from us, and that wouldn't make for a large number of ant-farms simply because ant-farms will be boring and useless...