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> if you bought them when they were at $150 and sold at $250 then who's the idiot? If you buy a lottery ticket and win then who's the idiot? You.

by eurleif 14y ago

corin_ 14y ago
There's a difference between blind luck and speculation. Of course your point is still debatable, but between the guy who looked at that $150 and said "no way it's about to burst" and the guy who said "this is going to keep going up" (for the record that wasn't/isn't me), how do you settle who's the idiot and who's the genius?
- dmix 14y ago
  > how do you settle who's the idiot and who's the genius By those who analyze historical trends and make rational future projections, such as this person (who is the latter): https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/btc-bubbles/ https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/btc-bubbles/ The former disregards the odds of winning in a lottery or the signs that a bubble exists and could pop at any moment.
  - corin_ 14y ago
    Good answer. But still overlooks the fact that if you buy in before the bubble peaks and sell before it bursts, you can do well. I've no idea if that means that at $150 it was a reasonable gamble to take that it would go up before it comes down, or if it was a reasonable gamble at $40, or never, or... Like I said, I felt it was an unreasonable gamble when I bought at $5-$10 a while ago, and so didn't buy more than a handful.
    - dragontamer 14y ago
      IE: the greater fool theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory Come on, people have been doing this stuff for centuries. It doesn't make you a genius, it makes you the lesser fool. Buying something that has little value, because you believe you can find a greater fool to dupe later is both risky and unethical.
- fossuser 14y ago
  Exactly - it wasn't too hard to game. I bought a few at $88 and saw it go up to $260. As soon as it slipped a bit immediately cashed out.
  - b6 14y ago
    Fooled by randomness.
    - fossuser 14y ago
      It's a market - as long as you're paying attention and there's someone who wants to buy from you you're fine. It's not entirely random, just good timing and keeping an eye on things.
      - polymatter 14y ago
        In case you didn't get the reference, 'Fooled by Randomness' is a book by Nassim Taleb.
      - b6 14y ago
        Hi, my original reply was too short, sorry. If you had said you bought BTC at $88 and sold at $260, I would have thought cool, good job. But you didn't stop there. You said it wasn't hard, you just used common sense. That's when my alarm bells went off and my brain started printing you a "Congratulations, you have been fooled by randomness" certificate to put on your wall. I'm not saying you are not really smart. I'm not saying your reasoning was wrong. Maybe you did get it totally right, and for the right reasons. But in another dimension, you bought at $88 and it went down to $20. Or you sold at $260 right before it went to $1000. You placed a bet and this time you won, and I'm glad. But you seem to think you won because you fully understood. That's almost certainly wrong. That's why the guy wrote the book. That's pretty much all his book says. "Yep, yep, I just thought it through and used my brain and kept my eyes open and placed my trade and made a big profit, not too hard really" -> fooled by randomness.
        fossuser 14y ago

> if you bought them when they were at $150 and sold at $250 then who's the idiot? If you buy a lottery ticket and win then who's the idiot? You.

by eurleif 14y ago

> if you bought them when they were at $150 and sold at $250 then who's the idiot? If you buy a lottery ticket and win then who's the idiot? You.

corin_ 14y ago

There's a difference between blind luck and speculation. Of course your point is still debatable, but between the guy who looked at that $150 and said "no way it's about to burst" and the guy who said "this is going to keep going up" (for the record that wasn't/isn't me), how do you settle who's the idiot and who's the genius?

dmix 14y ago
> how do you settle who's the idiot and who's the genius By those who analyze historical trends and make rational future projections, such as this person (who is the latter): https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/btc-bubbles/ https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/btc-bubbles/ The former disregards the odds of winning in a lottery or the signs that a bubble exists and could pop at any moment.
- corin_ 14y ago
  Good answer. But still overlooks the fact that if you buy in before the bubble peaks and sell before it bursts, you can do well. I've no idea if that means that at $150 it was a reasonable gamble to take that it would go up before it comes down, or if it was a reasonable gamble at $40, or never, or... Like I said, I felt it was an unreasonable gamble when I bought at $5-$10 a while ago, and so didn't buy more than a handful.
  - dragontamer 14y ago
    IE: the greater fool theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory Come on, people have been doing this stuff for centuries. It doesn't make you a genius, it makes you the lesser fool. Buying something that has little value, because you believe you can find a greater fool to dupe later is both risky and unethical.
fossuser 14y ago
Exactly - it wasn't too hard to game. I bought a few at $88 and saw it go up to $260. As soon as it slipped a bit immediately cashed out.
- b6 14y ago
  Fooled by randomness.
  - fossuser 14y ago
    It's a market - as long as you're paying attention and there's someone who wants to buy from you you're fine. It's not entirely random, just good timing and keeping an eye on things.
    - polymatter 14y ago
      In case you didn't get the reference, 'Fooled by Randomness' is a book by Nassim Taleb.
    - b6 14y ago
      Hi, my original reply was too short, sorry. If you had said you bought BTC at $88 and sold at $260, I would have thought cool, good job. But you didn't stop there. You said it wasn't hard, you just used common sense. That's when my alarm bells went off and my brain started printing you a "Congratulations, you have been fooled by randomness" certificate to put on your wall. I'm not saying you are not really smart. I'm not saying your reasoning was wrong. Maybe you did get it totally right, and for the right reasons. But in another dimension, you bought at $88 and it went down to $20. Or you sold at $260 right before it went to $1000. You placed a bet and this time you won, and I'm glad. But you seem to think you won because you fully understood. That's almost certainly wrong. That's why the guy wrote the book. That's pretty much all his book says. "Yep, yep, I just thought it through and used my brain and kept my eyes open and placed my trade and made a big profit, not too hard really" -> fooled by randomness.
      - fossuser 14y ago