Sorry, but I think you don't understand probability that much and you also underestimate how much people do probability subconsciously in the right way. Also, e

Sorry, but I think you don't understand probability that much and you also underestimate how much people do probability subconsciously in the right way. Also, even experts and scientists studying probability theory are pretty confused when it comes to reasoning correctly with probability. Look at it this way: the probability of me dying from heart disease is extremely low even though a lot of Americans have a high probability for that. There are quite genuine concerns in AI that people have messed up uncertainty, probability and statistics. http://www.agroparistech.fr/mia/agi-workshop/ http://www.agroparistech.fr/mia/agi-workshop/ So please stop the pop sci version of probability and statistics. Carnap is probably spinning in his grave right now :) Any good book on probability will show that there a half dozen ways to do probability from first principles and all of them are sort of equally valid but differ greatly. http://books.google.com/books/about/Universal_Artificial_Intelligence.html?id=NP53iZGt4KUC http://books.google.com/books/about/Universal_Artificial_Int...