Another day, another panspermia article. So transistor density and publication frequency follow a very strict exponential rule and that rule can in turn be used

Another day, another panspermia article. So transistor density and publication frequency follow a very strict exponential rule and that rule can in turn be used to trace the time elapsed to their origins. Most systems though don't follow such a rule, and if they do they generally don't at the extremes of the graph (near the beginning and after a long time). That said, the estimated 9.7 ± 2.5 billion years for life to evolve is at least within an order of magnitude correct, which makes it pretty cool. Also, we don't know how long abiogenesis takes and through which stages (presumably: many) the whole thing has to go until even the most basic building blocks as we know them today are set up. So you can add X billion years on top of that estimate while you're at it. Does that prove anything? Absolutely not. But even without evoking the tiring panspermia hypothesis this result is interesting, because the result is not completely off. It means that, within a certain period at least, the complexity of life does follow this exponential rule. Clearly, the formula needs to be tuned (based on evidence, not on open-mouth extraterrestrial finger-pointing), but it's a great start. I would venture that a more detailed genetic analysis of relatively recent organisms might result in a curve that is much more accurate. Assuming something will always double within a certain interval is not detailed enough as a model for this.