6 ms·

In a way journalists writing this type of article over and over puts a little fear in my heart. I don't ever intend or want to pass up my PC or laptop in favor

by TheCapn 14y ago

In a way journalists writing this type of article over and over puts a little fear in my heart. I don't ever intend or want to pass up my PC or laptop in favor of a phone or tablet interface; as a content developer its just not something I could ever see myself wanting to change. Sure, I own a smartphone and tablet but they're recreational at best and often used only for efficiency in my life, never a replacement for my PC where work gets done. But what I mean when I say I'm afraid is that people listen to these articles. They believe what is said and trumpet it across the skies for everyone to hear. I'd gamble more than 90% of the consumer market are content consumers exclusively; they don't see the need or benefits to having a powerful machine that lives upon your desk. Its not mobile, its not sleek. What happens next? Manufacturers follow that market and begin to neglect the ways of old. I never would believe the PC ever disappears but what I can see happening is it becoming a more niche market. Prices will go up and selection will go down as a result. It wont be soon but it will eventually happen. Perhaps I'm just afraid of change like my father before me. Perhaps I'm a bit too stubborn for my own good but whatever the reason I fear the day when finding a PC and OS modern enough to fit my needs isn't as easy as it is now. Until then I'm just going to keep on hoping the strong PC gaming market keeps the platform afloat.

mikeash 14y ago
I sympathize with your point of view. On the other hand, it seems like you could take your comment, replace "PC" with "mainframe" and "mobile" with "PC" and it would be right at home in 1975 or so. It's interesting because the 1975 version of the comment would be absolutely right. The PC did herald the end of the mainframe as we knew it. Sure, they're still alive, sort of, but it's not like it once was. And yet, the transition ultimately ended up being wonderful. Maybe this new transition will be great as well. Let's hope so.
- resu_nimda 14y ago
  The difference is the backwards shift in the user interface this time around. The touch paradigm is fundamentally less powerful and efficient than KB+mouse. Conversely, a PC can do anything a mainframe can do, from a UI standpoint. The true supplanter of the PC must have parity in this regard.
dkrich 14y ago
I think this overlooks one fairly major fact and the reason Microsoft became one of the most valuable companies in the world: businesses have employees. Employees use productivity software. Productivity software cannot run on a tablet in any practical sense. Even if it could, most large companies (which are Dell and Microsoft's bread and butter) lag a good 10 years behind technology trends. This is why most employees are running Windows XP or 7 and the same stodgy Office productivity software they've been using for 20 years. It works and is universally accepted. If there is ever a drop in demand large enough that would render the desktop computer market small enough to halt production, I would bet that you will find that you no longer use it for productivity either. I'm a developer too and that is not a niche market. It's easy to think of it as such but the reality is that old-fashioned productivity isn't going anywhere. Tablets have replaced non-consumption and at best complement desktop machines.
- Samuel_Michon 14y ago
  “Businesses have employees. Employees use productivity software. Productivity software cannot run on a tablet in any practical sense.” Employees stuck in offices use productivity software. There are so many settings in which notebooks and desktops aren't practical, but tablets are. Places where specialized software is required. Tablets deployed in retail, healthcare, defense, airplanes, hospitality, parcel delivery, onsite sales and repair, city councils, classrooms, elderly homes, etc etc. Also, even productivity software works better on tablets in some cases. Nowadays, I use OmniPlan for iPad instead of Microsoft Project and Apple Numbers for iPad instead of the OS X version. I make website mockups on the iPad instead of on the desktop. For what I need to do, it's faster and more convenient.
  - WayneDB 14y ago
    That's why employees should get a Microsoft Surface Pro. They get the full-featured operating system that they're used to and they can operate the full OS via touch, pen, keyboard or mouse. I've got one and I love it. No walled garden for me, thanks!
  - dkrich 14y ago
    "There are so many settings in which notebooks and desktops aren't practical, but tablets are. Places where specialized software is required. Tablets deployed in retail, healthcare, defense, airplanes, hospitality, parcel delivery, onsite sales and repair, city councils, classrooms, elderly homes, etc etc." This is partially what I meant by "non-consumption." In few if any of those environments are tablets replacing desktops. They're making those jobs easier to do by integrating software where previously it wasn't possible. Perhaps it's replacing a clipboard and pen, but not really a desktop. "Also, even productivity software works better on tablets in some cases. Nowadays, I use OmniPlan for iPad instead of Microsoft Project and Apple Numbers for iPad instead of the OS X version. I make website mockups on the iPad instead of on the desktop. For what I need to do, it's faster and more convenient." This may be true, but I would argue that this is what would be defined as a niche market. People in corporate America using Word and Excel is not. However I do recognize that this might not always be the case. The tablet may come to surpass the desktop in enabling productivity which is why I said that if manufacturers ever halted desktop production, he/she would likely not be using desktops for productivity anymore, either. Chances are what he/she does isn't all that unique compared to the overall market.
jiggy2011 14y ago
It depends what you mean when you say you want a "PC". Do you mean something that runs x86 architecture? Something with keyboard/mouse as the primary interface? Something with interchangeable commodity components? Something with lots of local storage?
general_failure 14y ago
Its a bit narrow to think that 90% of the makers are just consumers. The whole kids market has been narrowed down to iPads which is kind of sad because kids can do so much more. (If they were given more input device optins than today for example ). This whole narrow thinking is unfortunately throughout the general populace whose creativity has been inhibited by apple products ( just using their name because they are the ultima e proponents of 2-3 sizes fit all )
Livven 14y ago
Lots of gamers custom-build their own PCs, so as long as people keep playing games on Windows and demand ever faster graphics cards and CPUs etc. the desktop PC should be fairly safe.

by TheCapn 14y ago

mikeash 14y ago

I sympathize with your point of view. On the other hand, it seems like you could take your comment, replace "PC" with "mainframe" and "mobile" with "PC" and it would be right at home in 1975 or so. It's interesting because the 1975 version of the comment would be absolutely right. The PC did herald the end of the mainframe as we knew it. Sure, they're still alive, sort of, but it's not like it once was. And yet, the transition ultimately ended up being wonderful. Maybe this new transition will be great as well. Let's hope so.

resu_nimda 14y ago
The difference is the backwards shift in the user interface this time around. The touch paradigm is fundamentally less powerful and efficient than KB+mouse. Conversely, a PC can do anything a mainframe can do, from a UI standpoint. The true supplanter of the PC must have parity in this regard.

dkrich 14y ago

I think this overlooks one fairly major fact and the reason Microsoft became one of the most valuable companies in the world: businesses have employees. Employees use productivity software. Productivity software cannot run on a tablet in any practical sense. Even if it could, most large companies (which are Dell and Microsoft's bread and butter) lag a good 10 years behind technology trends. This is why most employees are running Windows XP or 7 and the same stodgy Office productivity software they've been using for 20 years. It works and is universally accepted. If there is ever a drop in demand large enough that would render the desktop computer market small enough to halt production, I would bet that you will find that you no longer use it for productivity either. I'm a developer too and that is not a niche market. It's easy to think of it as such but the reality is that old-fashioned productivity isn't going anywhere. Tablets have replaced non-consumption and at best complement desktop machines.

Samuel_Michon 14y ago
“Businesses have employees. Employees use productivity software. Productivity software cannot run on a tablet in any practical sense.” Employees stuck in offices use productivity software. There are so many settings in which notebooks and desktops aren't practical, but tablets are. Places where specialized software is required. Tablets deployed in retail, healthcare, defense, airplanes, hospitality, parcel delivery, onsite sales and repair, city councils, classrooms, elderly homes, etc etc. Also, even productivity software works better on tablets in some cases. Nowadays, I use OmniPlan for iPad instead of Microsoft Project and Apple Numbers for iPad instead of the OS X version. I make website mockups on the iPad instead of on the desktop. For what I need to do, it's faster and more convenient.
- WayneDB 14y ago
  That's why employees should get a Microsoft Surface Pro. They get the full-featured operating system that they're used to and they can operate the full OS via touch, pen, keyboard or mouse. I've got one and I love it. No walled garden for me, thanks!
- dkrich 14y ago
  "There are so many settings in which notebooks and desktops aren't practical, but tablets are. Places where specialized software is required. Tablets deployed in retail, healthcare, defense, airplanes, hospitality, parcel delivery, onsite sales and repair, city councils, classrooms, elderly homes, etc etc." This is partially what I meant by "non-consumption." In few if any of those environments are tablets replacing desktops. They're making those jobs easier to do by integrating software where previously it wasn't possible. Perhaps it's replacing a clipboard and pen, but not really a desktop. "Also, even productivity software works better on tablets in some cases. Nowadays, I use OmniPlan for iPad instead of Microsoft Project and Apple Numbers for iPad instead of the OS X version. I make website mockups on the iPad instead of on the desktop. For what I need to do, it's faster and more convenient." This may be true, but I would argue that this is what would be defined as a niche market. People in corporate America using Word and Excel is not. However I do recognize that this might not always be the case. The tablet may come to surpass the desktop in enabling productivity which is why I said that if manufacturers ever halted desktop production, he/she would likely not be using desktops for productivity anymore, either. Chances are what he/she does isn't all that unique compared to the overall market.

jiggy2011 14y ago

It depends what you mean when you say you want a "PC". Do you mean something that runs x86 architecture? Something with keyboard/mouse as the primary interface? Something with interchangeable commodity components? Something with lots of local storage?

general_failure 14y ago

Its a bit narrow to think that 90% of the makers are just consumers. The whole kids market has been narrowed down to iPads which is kind of sad because kids can do so much more. (If they were given more input device optins than today for example ). This whole narrow thinking is unfortunately throughout the general populace whose creativity has been inhibited by apple products ( just using their name because they are the ultima e proponents of 2-3 sizes fit all )

Livven 14y ago

Lots of gamers custom-build their own PCs, so as long as people keep playing games on Windows and demand ever faster graphics cards and CPUs etc. the desktop PC should be fairly safe.