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Stick a fork in it: Windows is done
- untog 13y agoAs the article itself suggests, the better title would be "the desktop OS is dying (to an extent)". The author states that desktop PC sales are declining, tablet sales are increasing, yet also states that sticking with Metro makes MS "idiots". Are they supposed to use the desktop UI on tablets? Of course not.
- redial 13y agoOf course, they are also not supposed to use a tablet UI on the desktop...
- cadetzero 13y ago"Windows is done". What a final statement. PC sales may be mostly done. A desktop that was bought 10 years ago can still run fine today - and many still are. We reached a point in computing where upgrading doesn't make that big of a difference. You can use the same machine for a decade or more without problem if you're an end user, especially given so many rich web apps that don't require high processing power.
- bluedino 13y agoA Pentium 4 or Athlon XP 2700+ from 10 years ago has been unusable for all but the simplest tasks for years. It would have also needed to be upgraded along the way - it came from the factory with just 256MB or 512MB RAM. You can still edit office documents and do some light web-surfing, but for todays interactive sites and content it falls far behind the experience that an iPad can provide.
- watmough 13y agoI'm not so sure. A Chromebook provides a significantly better experience than an iPad, at least for me and my wife. Our iPad 2 is now almost exclusively the province of my toddler daughter.
- cadetzero 13y agoMy mom still has no problem using QuickBooks and doing all the required web stuff at work with a Pentium 4 and 512mb ram. She literally just bought a new desktop because quickbooks requires it. In an office environment, she really doesn't need more.
- mscrivo 13y agoA decade is a bit much. I'll give you 5 years, but that's about it.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- TheCapn 13y agoIn a way journalists writing this type of article over and over puts a little fear in my heart. I don't ever intend or want to pass up my PC or laptop in favor of a phone or tablet interface; as a content developer its just not something I could ever see myself wanting to change. Sure, I own a smartphone and tablet but they're recreational at best and often used only for efficiency in my life, never a replacement for my PC where work gets done. But what I mean when I say I'm afraid is that people listen to these articles. They believe what is said and trumpet it across the skies for everyone to hear. I'd gamble more than 90% of the consumer market are content consumers exclusively; they don't see the need or benefits to having a powerful machine that lives upon your desk. Its not mobile, its not sleek. What happens next? Manufacturers follow that market and begin to neglect the ways of old. I never would believe the PC ever disappears but what I can see happening is it becoming a more niche market. Prices will go up and selection will go down as a result. It wont be soon but it will eventually happen. Perhaps I'm just afraid of change like my father before me. Perhaps I'm a bit too stubborn for my own good but whatever the reason I fear the day when finding a PC and OS modern enough to fit my needs isn't as easy as it is now. Until then I'm just going to keep on hoping the strong PC gaming market keeps the platform afloat.
- mikeash 13y agoI sympathize with your point of view. On the other hand, it seems like you could take your comment, replace "PC" with "mainframe" and "mobile" with "PC" and it would be right at home in 1975 or so. It's interesting because the 1975 version of the comment would be absolutely right. The PC did herald the end of the mainframe as we knew it. Sure, they're still alive, sort of, but it's not like it once was. And yet, the transition ultimately ended up being wonderful. Maybe this new transition will be great as well. Let's hope so.
- resu_nimda 13y agoThe difference is the backwards shift in the user interface this time around. The touch paradigm is fundamentally less powerful and efficient than KB+mouse. Conversely, a PC can do anything a mainframe can do, from a UI standpoint. The true supplanter of the PC must have parity in this regard.
- AndrewDucker 13y agoThe big question is - what else do we want a desktop to do that they can't already do? I struggle to think of anything that Windows could add to its functionality that would make me want a new version.
- protomyth 13y agoThere are still things that would benefit from faster PCs (e.g. VFX). What I'm looking for is a form factor change to be part of the next wave (Post-PC as Apple says). Something I can carry around and have all my files on and be connected then plug in for bigger screens and more power. Keeping all my files in the cloud is still a backup thing and not a live thing. Connections cost too much and aren't very reliable.
- Samuel_Michon 13y ago“I struggle to think of anything that Windows could add to its functionality that would make me want a new version.” Windows 7 and OS X 10.8 are fine desktop OSes that one can continue to use for years to come. However, I can think of two improvements for future versions: * Better file systems. Windows was supposed to get WinFS, OS X was destined to adopt ZFS. Unfortunately, neither of those panned out. HDDs are on their way out, we need native support for a file system that is reliable and is optimized for SSD use. Preferably, both Apple and Microsoft use the same open source solution for all their platforms, but that's not likely to happen. * APIs to aide cooperation between mobile apps and desktop apps and TV screens. Right now, there are few good examples of mobile apps adding to the desktop experience, or the other way around. At the moment, only Adobe Nav[1] and Adobe Color Lava[2] come to mind. This is something Apple en Microsoft need to solve, not make each developer do so for themselves. Look at the brilliant folks at Panic and their Status Board app: they spent months working on a solution to display high quality graphics from an iPad to a TV screen [3]; those things should be much easier. [1] http://www.photoshop.com/products/mobile/nav http://www.photoshop.com/products/mobile/nav [2] http://www.photoshop.com/products/mobile/colorlava http://www.photoshop.com/products/mobile/colorlava [3] http://www.panic.com/blog/2013/03/the-lightning-digital-av-adapter-surprise/ http://www.panic.com/blog/2013/03/the-lightning-digital-av-a...
- JungleGymSam 13y ago
- protomyth 13y ago"Done" in the sense mainframes are done.
- JimmaDaRustla 13y agoVery true; coding some COBOL in the background right now...
- TheAnimus 13y agoSo a guy who was wrong last time he said it, says it again. Ho humm. Thing is I think we all believe that the demand for desktops or high end laptops is probably going to flatline. The classic example is graphics cards for games. 15 years ago, a generation of cards made a massive difference to the quality of the games visuals. Running Half-Life with software rendering was awful compared to my Voodoo2. Nowadays the progress is purely a small refinement, my desktop from 3 years ago is still more than adequate. Meanwhile the other end of the scale people don't want a proper PC, they want a locked down, does what it can simply, with no side-effects life. But to suggest the end of Windows is to ignore their core business model.
- PonyGumbo 13y agoI'm using Windows 8 with the aftermarket StarDock start menu, and I've pretty much forgotten that I'm not using Win7 until I accidentally blunder back into Metro. I thought Metro was really neat for the first 20 minutes after I upgraded - until I realized that the mail indicator inexplicably doesn't connect to Outlook. It works with Windows Live/Outlook.com/Hotmail, but not Microsoft's flagship office software suite.
- mariusmg 13y agoYes, the OS with +90% market share is done. Idiot....
- redial 13y agoI believe the point is that the market is shrinking, so Microsoft is now the leader in a segment that gets more irrelevant every quarter while unable to enter in any meaningful way to the mobile race.
- WayneDB 13y agoUnable? I don't think so at all... Have you tried a Surface device? I got the Pro - it's a full operating system in a device the size of an iPad, with Intel i5 CPU and graphics. What's not to love? I predict that Windows is going to be increasingly more available on smaller mobile devices. Not much of a prediction because to me it's obvious that's the direction they're heading in.
- programminggeek 13y agoWindows isn't dead or dying. Laptop and desktop form factors aren't seen as the primary or only way to interact with software anymore. Windows is the king of desktop and laptop machines (by volume). iPad is the king of tablet/touch computing. Android via cheaper tablets is taking the lower end. So, where does Windows live on touch devices? Does it go head to head with the iPad or Android? I don't think it has the apps or mindshare to do that. Desktop and laptops are shrinking as the primary platform of computing, and with it Windows. Shrinking, not dying.
- cooldeal 13y agoDoes this mean it's time to lift the anti-monopoly restrictions on Microsoft and Windows?
- wyager 13y agoIt might, if the article weren't so ridiculously overstated.
- Toshio 13y agoThe defendant microsoft still has enough market clout left to scorch the metaphorical earth and poison the well for the rest of the industry. I'm talking about SecureBoot of course. So the answer to your question is a resounding no.
- evilduck 13y agoWhy would it? They still hold a monopoly with ~90% of desktops worldwide.
- francispelland 13y agoI love how it says "but the numbers show that Windows is coming to a dead end". So where are the numbers for Windows sales in this article, I just see PC sales. Typical journalism.
- recoiledsnake 13y agoIt will be interesting to see Apple's Mac sales numbers this quarter. Last quarter they were down close to 20% year-over-year. My personal theory for some of the loss in sales is that PCs are lasting much much longer than they used to. I just recently retired a laptop after using it for 6 years and am still rocking a quad core PC that is over 5 years old. My earlier computers were replaced earlier.
- Terretta 13y ago> My personal theory... "The Real Reason No One's Buying PCs Anymore: They've Gotten Too Good" — http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/04/12/why_pc_sales_are_declining_old_pcs_still_work_just_fine.html http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/04/12/why_pc_sa...
- kenjackson 13y agoThis guy has seemingly made a career out of being wrong about Windows. Here's a quote from one of his other articles, "I can't say that I've looked at Windows 7 nearly as closely as Kennedy has, but I've looked at Windows 7 enough to know that it's no real improvement on Vista." It's too bad that "journalists" can be consistently wrong with impunity. That said, based on his track record, Windows will probably have a bright future.
- aclevernickname 13y agorefresh our memories: how is Windows 7 a real improvement on Vista?
- RyanMcGreal 13y agoOff the top of my head: it boots faster, it operates faster, it's more stable, the interface is less bad (I hesitate to write "better"), and it dials down the panicky Cancel or Allow dialogs.
- Millennium 13y agoIf I recall correctly, it system requirements are actually lower than Windows 7's as well. Way to go against the grain. But that said, Windows 8's improvements are pretty much all under the hood: they're not user-facing. It's no wonder people don't see them, because the improvements are not designed to be seen. Unfortunately, that also means they can't really be marketed except in very niche scenarios.
- kabdib 13y agoThere's a lot of good stuff under the hood in Win8 (file system improvements, etc). Unfortunately, the Windows UI was taken over by zealots, and that never ends well. I think that Win8 could be saved if MS just published a few registry tweaks, combined with a checkbox saying that "No, I don't want to use Metro, ever." But it would require someone in upper management to admit they were wrong. They would get a bad review. Sadly, it's better to let customers go and let revenue slide than to admit that you were wrong, in a company like Microsoft.
- forgotAgain 13y agoA PC isn't a tablet nor is it a phone. Microsoft should have their Windows people concentrate on the PC. Make it the best desktop device possible. They need a separate mobile group. Keep Balmer as CEO but when it comes to mobile do the opposite of whatever he says. It worked for George: http://www.tv.com/shows/seinfeld/the-opposite-2326/ http://www.tv.com/shows/seinfeld/the-opposite-2326/
- RoryH 13y agoThe huge market may keep Windows in the game longer than anticipated is the often-overlooked monopoly they have with DirectX, and graphic drivers that work (reference to my recent experience using Ubuntu for a while with nVidia hardware)
- aclevernickname 13y agoIt's a great time to be a Linux user. 10 Years ago, if you had told me that a linux-based OS would be beating Apple and Microsoft's offerings, I would have called you a pie-in-the-sky dreamer. Today, we're celebrating the natural conclusion of the Halloween Documents in pure Ghandi style; They ignored us, then they laughed at us, then they fought us. Now we've won.
- JungleGymSam 13y agoWhy is this on HN?
- alok-g 13y ago>> but you know what device we'll still be using for most of our interactions? It will be a PC, simply because it's easier to enter data with a real keyboard than any other interface. Real keyboards are nearly gone from the smartphone space. Several people I have spoken to assert that keyboards will also be gone from the workplace in a few years. I have some ideas on how to enhance a real keyboard to make it more productive and ergonomic. My key motivation behind these comes from I myself wanting such a thing. However, I have been having mixed feelings about pursuing these due to mixed feedback from friends, primarily because they think keyboards/PCs are going away, or that getting external funding in this space would be nearly impossible. Do you have any advice on whether this area is worth pursuing or not? Are PCs and real keyboards going to go away, or there are here to stay as OP says?
- evanhamilton 13y agoI don't think Windows is done because there's always going to be a market for cheap(er) laptops and desktops. My girlfriend is a teacher. She can't afford a Mac. She doesn't want a Chromebook because she spends time in locations with no internet connection. She'll be buying a Windows machine for THOSE reasons. Someone could absolutely disrupt Microsoft in the low-price market (and who knows, Chromebook might get there) but we're not going to see everyone switch to Macs just because the new Windows isn't great.
- benburleson 13y agoI feel like there's some other alternative there...just having a hard time putting my finger on it...I heard it's really cheap, maybe even free?
- cafard 13y ago"I'm sure many people in 1491 thought that the Earth was flat, too." You could look it up...