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True. I think if we analyzed the predictions of so called 'experts' before and after the fact of any event, the result would be extremely embarrassing. But the
by kislayverma 14y ago
True. I think if we analyzed the predictions of so called 'experts' before and after the fact of any event, the result would be extremely embarrassing.
But then, we should already know that.
- EliRivers 14y agoI seem to recall that something along these lines for political punditry was discussed in "The Signal and the Noise" by that chap Nate Silver. I think (but could well be mis-remembering) one of his conclusions was that since these pundits are for entertainment value rather than serious prediction, nobody in charge of putting them in front of the camera cares much.
- kislayverma 14y agoIt's also about half of Nasim Taleb's content. He repeatedly asserts that outside of the hard sciences like physics, there are no experts.