I would think the trouble lies with the fact that, with some frequency to be debated, a high school drop out commits to startup career, fights through years of

I would think the trouble lies with the fact that, with some frequency to be debated, a high school drop out commits to startup career, fights through years of slow growth, relentlessly resourceful in finding new ways to keep afloat, then doesn't have a break through. It's not clear that a break through always happens, and we risk into getting no true Scotsman territory with "well, if you were resourceful enough it would have happened." Winning the lottery (by buying a lot of tickets, trying to find patterns, fighting through years of middling returns, relentlessly resourceful in finding new ways to not go bankrupt) is great if you do it, but expected outcomes are better for just plain working. Of course, the whole VC scene is based on getting people to try to win the lottery...