3 ms·
Deflation and volatility do not make bitcoin nothing more than "a lesson in basic economics for crypto-anarcho-libertarian-nerds". Contemporary dogma surroundi
by eof 14y ago
Deflation and volatility do not make bitcoin nothing more than "a lesson in basic economics for crypto-anarcho-libertarian-nerds".
Contemporary dogma surrounding deflation is broken in multiple ways. The idea that deflation is bad is only considered credible (imho) is because it is touted so loudly. There are very few examples of deflation in history to draw from (as opposed to inflation, which there are many more), and further, many of the existing examples of deflation, while "on paper" are bad are not particularly harmful to the median-income'd person.
One rhetoric for deflation-is-evil is predicated on this idea that if consumers know their capital is going to be able to aquire more tomorrow than today, they will wait till tomorrow "too much" for the economy to function. (The analysis tends to get very hand-wavy after this part..). Interestingly, for the past 50~ years we have experienced rapid deflation in computer prices. Consumers have not shied away from purchasing an iphone 5 the second it comes out because it will be cheaper next year and their iphone 4 is basically the same thing. The idea that inflation is 'necessary' to keep an economy going is essentially conjecture; and I disagree; I think a deflationary currency (especially when there are other local currencies competing) will be very good for the economy and encourage more businesses that create things as sexy as the iphone5 (or services equally as appealing to consumers) as it will be the only way to get that currency out of people's hands. When people are hungry or trying to imprss someone, or really desiring of something.. they will spend today even if next year they might be able to get a couple percent more.
Anyway, perhaps deflation is the nail-in-the-coffin, but I don't really see evidence of it, just a lot of people really insisting that it's true.
As for volatility; I think volatility both a) has a potential to lessen over time, and b) is not an insurmountable barrier depending on how much people want to use bitcoin specifically (if you need to send money somewhere privately) ; they can be exposed to exchange rate for only a few minutes, or, use an escrow service that is also willing to hedge (the silk road does this).
bitpay exposes merchants to zero% exchange risk; they get lower rates than cc's and zero charge backs.. no merchant account necessary.
However, beyond even all of that, these arguments are dismissed because by every measurement available: bitcoin is acting as a currency, despite deflation* and volatility. People have so deeply ingrained that 'deflation==dead' that when they see a functioning currency that doesn't have the characteristics it is "supposed to" they define it as a " a lesson in basic economics for crypto-anarcho-libertarian-nerds" as if they can predict the future. Quite pompous.
Bitcoin has had several major crashes which easily could have dropped bitcoin to zero if it were indeed worthless. Yet it continues on, acting as a medium of exchange between --hundreds-- -thousands- -hundreds of thousands- millions of people; some as a toy, some are betting their lives on it.
- rattray 14y agoYour point about deflation in electronics sounds to me like a great one. That still doesn't account for what I've heard as the bigger complaint of investor fear (because no, they really don't have to invest in a vehicle that underperforms deflation because it's so shiny, like in iPhone). But there may be other mechanisms/responses out there that I just don't know about.