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Ultimately, keeping a conspiracy under wraps is an n^2 problem, where n is the number of people behind it. If it's a government, it is not a constitutional one
by argumentum 14y ago
Ultimately, keeping a conspiracy under wraps is an n^2 problem, where n is the number of people behind it.
If it's a government, it is not a constitutional one with democratic elections. Checks and balances make it much more difficult to carry out a conspiracy with elegance and grace. I'm not saying it's impossible, but if the US did it, it will come out very soon. There are too many conflicting interests in government to keep this under wraps for long.
Essentially, crypto-guys who don't leak stuff would have to have been acting at the bottom of a chain of command that does leak stuff clumsily, and is opposed by political forces with the incentive to find stuff out. Plus, no major agency of the government has yet commented, which suggests that they are trying to get their heads around the phenomenon before choosing how to act.
All the same, I doubt it's an individual, as you suggested. It's certainly a group or entity with it's own agenda, external to, but perhaps sponsored in some way by a government (perhaps even the US, for the reasons you mentioned).
- hyperbovine 14y ago> Ultimately, keeping a conspiracy under wraps is an n^2 problem, where n is the number of people behind it. I'm puzzled by this statement. You need n people to keep the secret...
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- Filligree 14y agoThat'd be 2^n, then. n^2 is 'geometrically harder'.
- argumentum 14y agoYeah, that's what I meant .. thanks.
- venomsnake 14y ago3 can keep secret only if two of them are dead
- SilasX 14y agoGenerally, n can keep a secret if n-1 are dead.
- archgoon 14y agoI believe his argument is that if you have n people in on a conspiracy, than you have possibility of any of the n^2 communication channels becoming compromised, and n^2 more chatter going on. You can mitigate this by having only one person keep track of things, and ensure that no one else knows anyone else is in on it (yay! Star topologies!)
- marshray 14y agoAlso, each of the n individuals knows that there are (n - 1) others who could also leak. Attribution for the source of the leak becomes harder and everyone involved knows it. So the motivation to keep the secret is reduced along with the sense of accountability.
- gruseom 14y agoThe "if this conspiracy were real, somebody would have leaked it by now" argument gets repeated all the time, but it's bogus. If correct, it would mean there were no covert ops. And we know that's not so. The reason why "conspiracy theories" sound silly is that the term itself is reserved for possibilities the speaker doesn't believe in [edit: changed that wording to make it more neutral]. Well-documented conspiracies are called "history". http://20committee.com/2013/02/24/what-if-everything-you-know-is-wrong/ http://20committee.com/2013/02/24/what-if-everything-you-kno...
- argumentum 14y agoCovert ops usually have a small, well-defined purpose (taking out Osama, for example). The creators of bitcoin could have one or more purposes, picked from a fairly large set of possibilities. I don't wish to express contempt for the possibility, just that it is unlikely.
- mikecane 14y ago>>>Ultimately, keeping a conspiracy under wraps is an n^2 problem, where n is the number of people behind it. Stuxnet. How long before anyone outside of the group that created/deployed it knew it existed? EDIT to add: I typed too soon. You did specify "conspiracy." Stuxnet was an approved project. Those are easier to keep secret.
- argumentum 14y agoActually, Stuxnet was outed pretty quickly (less than a decade, if the speculation is correct). An the target of Stuxnet was an single program of a fairly obnoxious state (Iran). The "target" of btc is an entrenched system of currency used by nearly everyone on earth. Much harder to contain.
- mikecane 14y ago>>>The "target" of btc is an entrenched system of currency used by nearly everyone on earth. Much harder to contain. I wonder if I'm the only person who sees Bitcoin as just as alpha test?
- unclebucknasty 14y agoOf course, we don't know how good the government really is at keeping secrets, because we only know about the failures. In general, however, I would argue that it is incredibly naive to think that we know even remotely all there is to know about what our government does.