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What difference does that really make? Plenty of people today doing what you like had parents who didn't. If people you respect in tech don't have children, it

What difference does that really make? Plenty of people today doing what you like had parents who didn't. If people you respect in tech don't have children, it'll be someone else's children that get to do the cool stuff in the next generation. It's not as if the demand for new technology is going to decrease as a few hundred million Chinese (hopefully) hit the middle class in a couple of decades.

rdl 14y ago
I sort of believe people are able to overcome their circumstances in 1-2 generations after being removed from a sufficiently toxic environment, but I largely disbelieve that a statistically significant number of the people alive today in e.g. Afghanistan, or born over the next 20 years there, will be positive contributors to the world. There are outliers (who GTFO, are western educated, and either don't go back, or go back essentially from a western frame of reference), and there are cultures themselves which improve over a generation (Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea are the best examples from the 1900s; they went from serious problems post-WW2 to world leaders today). I believe China might accomplish that, but I don't have much confidence in a lot of other countries, including those with very high populations or current growth rates (and high inequality, largely supported by natural resources). And I think much of the US is regressing -- the son of a random unemployed Detroit person is less likely to become a first-class member of society today than the son of a factory worker was 30-50 years ago.
- twoodfin 14y ago
  I guess my crystal ball is a little bit brighter. People thought things were going to hell internationally and domestically in the '70's, too. Here we are 40 years later, and most (all?) of the real dire predictions failed to bear out, and there are many amazing outcomes that few were predicting, including outstanding health and economic growth including in the nations you mentioned. Also a free and unified Europe, an open, if not free, China, and an India that can mostly feed itself. I don't want to get into the argument about whether the U.S. has regressed or is regressing, but I have a hard time seeing how we're worse off than in 1973. The Middle East and Africa appear to be the big exceptions.
  - rdl 14y ago
    Russia seems worse off that it was at the peak of the USSR. Argentina undeniably is worse off that at its peak (from top-10 in the world to essentially one of the basketcases of its continent, which isn't exactly a world leader either). Other South and Central American countries also seem to be regressing, and even more so if you go by population vs. counting per country -- the rich in Brazil seem to be doing quite well, but increasing inequality. Africa (at least, sub-Saharan) is actually doing better now than in the past. The Islamic world is the big laggard. A lot of this was due to the cold war legacy, though (same in Africa), so there's some reason to be optimistic in both. India's recent success I'd put down to ending some stupid socialist policies in the 1990s, which were also fairly tied to the cold war (and personal preferences of early leaders). And in Asia, a lot of the problems were also due to communism or weird military dictatorships propped up by communism (absent the cold war, I really hope the US would have wanted Suharto, Marcos, etc. hanging from gallows vs. giving them billions in support). There's also some selection bias in my crystal ball in that I've spent more time in places which were objectively superior in 1975 (Iraq, Afghanistan, certain parts of N.A., etc.) to 1990-2013.

rdl 14y ago

I sort of believe people are able to overcome their circumstances in 1-2 generations after being removed from a sufficiently toxic environment, but I largely disbelieve that a statistically significant number of the people alive today in e.g. Afghanistan, or born over the next 20 years there, will be positive contributors to the world. There are outliers (who GTFO, are western educated, and either don't go back, or go back essentially from a western frame of reference), and there are cultures themselves which improve over a generation (Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea are the best examples from the 1900s; they went from serious problems post-WW2 to world leaders today). I believe China might accomplish that, but I don't have much confidence in a lot of other countries, including those with very high populations or current growth rates (and high inequality, largely supported by natural resources). And I think much of the US is regressing -- the son of a random unemployed Detroit person is less likely to become a first-class member of society today than the son of a factory worker was 30-50 years ago.

twoodfin 14y ago
I guess my crystal ball is a little bit brighter. People thought things were going to hell internationally and domestically in the '70's, too. Here we are 40 years later, and most (all?) of the real dire predictions failed to bear out, and there are many amazing outcomes that few were predicting, including outstanding health and economic growth including in the nations you mentioned. Also a free and unified Europe, an open, if not free, China, and an India that can mostly feed itself. I don't want to get into the argument about whether the U.S. has regressed or is regressing, but I have a hard time seeing how we're worse off than in 1973. The Middle East and Africa appear to be the big exceptions.
- rdl 14y ago
  Russia seems worse off that it was at the peak of the USSR. Argentina undeniably is worse off that at its peak (from top-10 in the world to essentially one of the basketcases of its continent, which isn't exactly a world leader either). Other South and Central American countries also seem to be regressing, and even more so if you go by population vs. counting per country -- the rich in Brazil seem to be doing quite well, but increasing inequality. Africa (at least, sub-Saharan) is actually doing better now than in the past. The Islamic world is the big laggard. A lot of this was due to the cold war legacy, though (same in Africa), so there's some reason to be optimistic in both. India's recent success I'd put down to ending some stupid socialist policies in the 1990s, which were also fairly tied to the cold war (and personal preferences of early leaders). And in Asia, a lot of the problems were also due to communism or weird military dictatorships propped up by communism (absent the cold war, I really hope the US would have wanted Suharto, Marcos, etc. hanging from gallows vs. giving them billions in support). There's also some selection bias in my crystal ball in that I've spent more time in places which were objectively superior in 1975 (Iraq, Afghanistan, certain parts of N.A., etc.) to 1990-2013.