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Today's currencies are based on government. They are fiat money in that sense, ok. Bitcoin is "pure fiat" as in "based on trust of the people, by the people".
by guylhem 14y ago
Today's currencies are based on government. They are fiat money in that sense, ok.
Bitcoin is "pure fiat" as in "based on trust of the people, by the people". Notice how the government word is absent. I don't think we had that before - at least, not in a way that can not be easily abused by the government.
[there are some counter examples, independant central banks following a monetarist policy of say 4.5% M3 aggregate growth in the EU. The ECB (european central bank), unlike the FED, is almost independent from the government, but still political power managed to create funny mechanism to buy back sovereign debt, which now results in Cyprus style situation. politics and money do not mix well]
The "friction" you ignore is the bid/ask spread and volatility - bad things in any international trade. It's called currency risk and it makes import-export companies take money-market positions for a good reason.
There is also the risk of rampant inflation aka "shoes leather cost" - the best example is when talking about people in the Weimar republic who were paid an always increasing salary twice daily and immediately cashed out all their money because of the crazy inflation. You should like that - so many money changing hands at a high speed must be a good thing for the economy!
Joke aside, your understanding of economics seems very tainted by political correctness, but you correctly noticed I should have added more details, at the risk of creating a contradiction. This is a very valid critic.
The "dead stock" is theoretical - even more with pure fiat money:
- With gold, that could have been a problem, due to storage costs and alternative uses (gold is a very conductive metal, and apparently is also enjoy as jewelry by many people.
- With fiat money, some issues remain, like storage costs, but the risk of inflation is an even bigger issue.
- With a "pure fiat" money, since there are little alternative use, and even better in the case of bitcoin - no risk of inflation, the problem may vanish altogether. People invest just because inflation makes keeping cash a bad idea.
When you reduce the frictions (transaction costs, etc) and remove the risk of inflation, why not convert money to stuff you need "just in time", ie when you need it, instead of wasting time and effort to store it and look for bigger yields due to the frictions and inflation? Presently, you want to do everything you can to avoid losing capital, which creates a game theory problem for other people who have to play the same game you do. But if you remove the problem, you remove the incentives for such behaviours.
Which leads us back to what money is. You can't eat money, or sleep in money. But since you can convert it whenever you need and there can be no inflation, why bother being a rentier when you remove the risk of inflation? In fact, it might be harder to be a rentier, since instead of funding "minimal returns" (ie just a bit more than inflation) investment project of any kind, one would have to aim for "high returns" - as in startups, ambitious companies, etc.
That clarification aside, the core difference with the current system is that by removing inflation, no one will be forced to earn more and more money just to maintain a status-quo (except by your own new needs of new things - we are not hippies, most of us want new shiny things - the economy won't stop).
The removal of this coercion will make useless and redundant all those who currently live on this man-made coercion called inflation.
10% of the GDP is the financial sector - and just how many bright people are employed doing that? That's a lot of freed human capital, which could be put to better use (bring mankind to new planets) once the problem is solved. Bitcoin solved that, and the market is noticing.
If you are not sure about inflation, let me be crystal clear - it was not a bad thing when money had to be a precise unit of accounting matching the growth of the real economy, but with today's computational power (bitcoin can be divided) and networks milliseconds latency, it's not required anymore.
Stock market analogy- instead of printing more shares, companies sometimes divide them, and let the market price each division. It seems to works quite well.
Now with deflation - the great depression was turned into a real problem with the productivity of that time, countries could barely feed themselves. Less people working meant a severe shortage risk. That's not the case anymore, with the amount of agricultural surpluses we have.
I'm not blaming you for your interpretation. Just like you, I believed the lack of inflation was a problem in BTC - or that at least it should happen at a given rate to follow a monetarist approach, or that having so many bitcoins gone to the initial adopters was "unfair" for the newcomers. Now the more I see it, the more I see it as a game changer in a good way. 10% of the GDP spent every year on a problem that is now solved - I'm sorry but even if you give these 10% to those who bootstrapped bitcoin as a one-time payment, this is a steal!
I sincerely believe that in todays economies ONCE THEY USE BTC a similar situation of what in the past were problems caused by inflation or deflation problems will create instead a long period of sustaining growth - by putting human capital to a better use than solving the problems we ourselves created.
How do the keynesians explain this stagflation BTW, not enough stimulus ? Not enough gas being put on the fire ? (or maybe, demand style economics proved to many people the game was rigged and the best move was not to play, since parasitic living was a rewarded option)
You talk full employment, etc, so let's go further with your theory and take an example:
Milton Friedman visited China in the early 1960s and was taken by a government official to see a public works project. Chinese workers were building a canal. Friedman was struck by seeing everyone digging the canal with shovels. Friedman asked the official, "why no heavy earth-moving equipment?" The official said, "oh, this is a jobs program." So Friedman then says to the official, "then why don't you just give them spoons instead of shovels to create even more jobs?"
Here "full employment" maintains the inflation coercion while managing rentiers capital, is tedious and pointless - just like digging with spoons. So what exactly do you like so much about the current system?
Bitcoin is like a big experiment. The current system is adapted to a generous and social human nature with very few asocials. If the human is as good as that, this system as nothing to fear. Why would anyone want any BTC? After all, most would believe and trust the government to manage the money. But if people don't, then bitcoin is the solution.
- pjzedalis 14y agoWhile I haven't completely read through this entire essay I do have a small observation: I find it fascinating how much distrust for Government and banking systems fuels your passion for Bitcoin. So long as capitalism exists in its current state currency will just be an instrument of capitalism's will. Whether that be Bitcoin, USD or Disney Dollars. Capitalism is what inspires transaction fees, denying health insurance requests, taking away someones house, poverty, planned obsolescence, etc. I feel your fire is being pointed at the wrong direction. That maybe your beef is with capitalism and not whether we use semi-anonymous block chains or pieces of green paper.
- guylhem 14y agoI have a beef, but with inefficiency due to wilful stupidity. You could be right- there was even a well written essay I read about how governments could try and turn bitcoin into an oppressive financial system, due to the ease it provides to track every transaction. Maybe I'll have a beef with capitalism if, after the implementation of a system which trims down what I perceive to be a self-made problem (inflation fuelling governments destructive policies), I still notice persisting issues. I can't say for now. The experiment is just beginning :-) I hope I do not have any blinding faith in any political system. It just seems to me that capitalism is what works best, and could work better with a libertarian approach. Just like Thomas Sowel says - I don't have faith, but proofs. (Still, this doesn't mean there can't be better proofs or better things we just don't know yet.) So I would not say I hate the banking system, no more than I hate horse buggies : it just seems to me that cars are more efficient. I would hate it if horse buggies were mandatory and cars forbidden, because it would be a loss of efficiency for society. The current banking system performs an important role, in an efficient way, but it will hopefully made obsolete and replaced by something more efficient. It is likely that governments and capitalism will still be involved, but between governments and capitalism, I know what I fear the most. It's not the self interested capitalists who acts following their best interests, doing things as you said, like taking away someones houses, but the governments who takes a "moral superiority" position, use their power to benefit some well connected ones, pretend to act in the common good and violating both the letter and the spirit of the law - all the while doing the very same things. At least the capitalist doing these things is honest in the reasons why they are done. And the "good ones", Ayn Rand style capitalist, do worry about the letter and the spirit of the laws and of a contract. She said that beautifully : "I am not primarily an advocate of capitalism, but of egoism; and I am not primarily an advocate of egoism, but of reason. If one recognizes the supremacy of reason and applies it consistently, all the rest follows."