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Sold everything I had yesterday at ~$240 https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/321751009598791682 https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/321751009598791682 I was buyin

by nikcub 14y ago

Sold everything I had yesterday at ~$240 https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/321751009598791682 https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/321751009598791682 I was buying and selling BitCoins with a very simple theory. Each time the currency would rally I would check the stories on Google News and check the graph on Google Trends[1]. Other price peaks would correspond with a peak on the trends graph[2], a new peak in new stories (with more stories in more general media publications), and more traffic to the sites that are the top results for "BitCoin" (using Compete etc.) The peak yesterday had no new interest driving it, and no new buyers coming in. It was clear what was going to happen next. Previous price peaks would drive new news stories which would drive the next peak. Yesterday I logged into News and Trends and found the trends level at its lowest in 30+ days and no new large items in news and sold. [1] https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/319427166817357824 https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/319427166817357824 [2] https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/315680085468405760 https://twitter.com/nikcub/status/315680085468405760

wamatt 14y ago
..and this is probably going to look foolish when it goes to $1000 later this year. Your actions looks like someone trying to pat themselves on the back and reassure the "right decision". I wish online P2P wagers were legal in the US :) I was watching everything during the "crash". It's already back up to 170 in a few hours. Previous crash took months to recover. I've been around the block and the same tired and worn arguments were being used at $10 then $20 and $100.
- mkr-hn 14y ago
  You sound like every person who believed in the non-bubbleness of every bubble. What justifies the price of Bitcoins? They have no real value before they're widely accepted, and that won't happen until the price is stable.
  - cjg 14y ago
    "Widely accepted" isn't a binary value. As adoption increases bitcoins gain value. That's what justifies the price. The problem is deciding just how much adoption implies how much value.
- nikcub 14y ago
  > later this year I play a much shorter game than that. If it is justified, I will likely jump back in. This isn't the first time i've bought and then sold BitCoins. It has run out of new buyers to drive it to that level. The support from those who believe in the currency isn't worth more than $100 - much less than that. Everybody else is an amateur investor who read about BitCoin in USA Today and believes in it for the profit potential, not as a currency. These people scurried at the slightest smell of a price shock.
kokey 14y ago
What I find funny about most of the comments on here and everywhere else is that many of it reminds me of the investment bulletin boards and forums I've been frequenting over the years. There is always a lot of people talking the price up (since they are invested in it), and when there is a dip it is a 'buying opportunity' (so that others can buy and help the value of their holdings) What to me the most striking is the firm belief that demand will keep on growing, just like people believed property prices will keep on going up since the population is growing and land is finite. Sure, but demand spikes can still price these things too high.
- lucb1e 14y ago
  > What to me the most striking is the firm belief that demand will keep on growing, just like people believed property prices will keep on going up since the population is growing and land is finite. Sure, but demand spikes can still price these things too high. I don't think anyone really expected it to go up in one straight line all the way to the value that it should have during mainstream usage.
  - kokey 14y ago
    Sure, but I don't think everyone takes into account that the price could collapse down to $20 or below and could take, say, over 5 years or more to get above $300 with a lot of volatility along the way.

by nikcub 14y ago

wamatt 14y ago

..and this is probably going to look foolish when it goes to $1000 later this year. Your actions looks like someone trying to pat themselves on the back and reassure the "right decision". I wish online P2P wagers were legal in the US :) I was watching everything during the "crash". It's already back up to 170 in a few hours. Previous crash took months to recover. I've been around the block and the same tired and worn arguments were being used at $10 then $20 and $100.

mkr-hn 14y ago
You sound like every person who believed in the non-bubbleness of every bubble. What justifies the price of Bitcoins? They have no real value before they're widely accepted, and that won't happen until the price is stable.
- cjg 14y ago
  "Widely accepted" isn't a binary value. As adoption increases bitcoins gain value. That's what justifies the price. The problem is deciding just how much adoption implies how much value.
nikcub 14y ago
> later this year I play a much shorter game than that. If it is justified, I will likely jump back in. This isn't the first time i've bought and then sold BitCoins. It has run out of new buyers to drive it to that level. The support from those who believe in the currency isn't worth more than $100 - much less than that. Everybody else is an amateur investor who read about BitCoin in USA Today and believes in it for the profit potential, not as a currency. These people scurried at the slightest smell of a price shock.

kokey 14y ago

What I find funny about most of the comments on here and everywhere else is that many of it reminds me of the investment bulletin boards and forums I've been frequenting over the years. There is always a lot of people talking the price up (since they are invested in it), and when there is a dip it is a 'buying opportunity' (so that others can buy and help the value of their holdings) What to me the most striking is the firm belief that demand will keep on growing, just like people believed property prices will keep on going up since the population is growing and land is finite. Sure, but demand spikes can still price these things too high.

lucb1e 14y ago
> What to me the most striking is the firm belief that demand will keep on growing, just like people believed property prices will keep on going up since the population is growing and land is finite. Sure, but demand spikes can still price these things too high. I don't think anyone really expected it to go up in one straight line all the way to the value that it should have during mainstream usage.
- kokey 14y ago
  Sure, but I don't think everyone takes into account that the price could collapse down to $20 or below and could take, say, over 5 years or more to get above $300 with a lot of volatility along the way.