If you look at Figure 4 in the actual article, you see that persistence DOES pay off on YouTube. Although the probability of a particular video becoming insane

If you look at Figure 4 in the actual article, you see that persistence DOES pay off on YouTube. Although the probability of a particular video becoming insanely popular declines, the overall probability that at least one video from your collection becomes popular continues to rise as you keep uploading them. If your first lottery ticket has a 0.01 chance of winning, but your next lottery tickets have a declining chance of winning, the overall chance of winning the lottery can continue to rise. In their example, it rises from 0.01 to approaching 0.20. Doesn't sound all that irrational, does it? Persistence increases your chance of becoming popular by a factor of 20X. It just takes many more than 20 uploads to accomplish that increase. In fact, ... when you think about it, ... it could not turn out any other way. If the probability of your next video getting you in the "top 1%" on YouTube stayed fixed, ... then EVERYONE could be in the "top 1%". ... sounds like everyone wanting their kids to be "above average" in school. It's just not possible. -- dxjones