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Bitcoin has already taught us that even smart people are not immune to drinking the Kool-Aid. The tech community is quickly separating into two camps that are b

by zeteo 14y ago

Bitcoin has already taught us that even smart people are not immune to drinking the Kool-Aid. The tech community is quickly separating into two camps that are becoming unintelligible to each other. For some, this article is an amazing piece full of profound insights that justify their decision to buy Bitcoins. For others, it piles weak arguments on top of an assumption that the recent rise in Bitcoin value will continue forever.

wamatt 14y ago
Two issues: 1)Having insights and owning bitcoins can be mutually independent variables. In other words, it's entirely possibly you have it completely backward, and that upon arriving at a lengthy deliberation, some rational actors, are therefore choosing to take a position. 2) >"that the recent rise in Bitcoin value will continue forever." That's a pretty decent sized strawman you've rustled up. Most people in that camp are not arguing that bitcoin will rise forever. The discussion is about the shape of the graph. I believe both an s-curve (slow adoption, exponential growth, maturity) and [perhaps multiple] sawtooth (crash scenario) are plausible.
- jbooth 14y ago
  It seems to me, with a finite supply and limited usage, it has to either keep increasing forever or crash, right? Finite supply and an uptake in usage as an actual currency (aka something different than what 90% of the players seem to be doing) would mean an increase in demand causing prices to continue to rise with adoption (which could spell some problems with adoption, but not necessarily insurmountable ones). Meanwhile, if adoption as an actual currency never takes off, then eventually the whole thing's gotta fall over, right? So it's either continual price rises or a big crash? What are the other scenarios? All of this talk about the nature of currencies when it's clear that 90% of the activity is treating it as a speculative asset seems silly to me. Either it transitions to a currency (which is more about usage than price), or it doesn't and eventually crashes.

by zeteo 14y ago

wamatt 14y ago

Two issues: 1)Having insights and owning bitcoins can be mutually independent variables. In other words, it's entirely possibly you have it completely backward, and that upon arriving at a lengthy deliberation, some rational actors, are therefore choosing to take a position. 2) >"that the recent rise in Bitcoin value will continue forever." That's a pretty decent sized strawman you've rustled up. Most people in that camp are not arguing that bitcoin will rise forever. The discussion is about the shape of the graph. I believe both an s-curve (slow adoption, exponential growth, maturity) and [perhaps multiple] sawtooth (crash scenario) are plausible.

jbooth 14y ago
It seems to me, with a finite supply and limited usage, it has to either keep increasing forever or crash, right? Finite supply and an uptake in usage as an actual currency (aka something different than what 90% of the players seem to be doing) would mean an increase in demand causing prices to continue to rise with adoption (which could spell some problems with adoption, but not necessarily insurmountable ones). Meanwhile, if adoption as an actual currency never takes off, then eventually the whole thing's gotta fall over, right? So it's either continual price rises or a big crash? What are the other scenarios? All of this talk about the nature of currencies when it's clear that 90% of the activity is treating it as a speculative asset seems silly to me. Either it transitions to a currency (which is more about usage than price), or it doesn't and eventually crashes.