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Well, I'd say that calling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- along with a major recession to rival that of the Great Depression -- within a 6 month time window was
by muraiki 14y ago
Well, I'd say that calling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- along with a major recession to rival that of the Great Depression -- within a 6 month time window was a pretty good prediction. The other predictions that I can recall were related to that: the collapse of consumer credit availability, investment money being driven to treasurys despite the US predicament, problems with municipal bonds. He also warned about PIIGS pretty early, and that the measures that were being taken would only result in kicking the can while increasing the pain. But perhaps that's more of a stopped clock kind of prediction.
As I said, I haven't followed him much lately, and he admits that he gets an F in terms of predictions for 2012: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=215356 http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=215356
Regarding the freshness of his views: his post was written to his current audience (he runs a forum for investors). I don't think he had any idea this would end up on HN, if he even knows what HN is!
- tptacek 14y agoWhen did he "call" Fannie Mae? Let's judge the prediction. When did he start warning about Italy, Spain, and Greece? What were his warnings? Wasn't the disparity between the economies of Greece and of Germany one of the original structural concerns about the Euro from the jump? Either way, let's see if he started warning about "PIIGS" before or after Michael Lewis wrote about Greece.
- muraiki 14y agoI appreciate your desire to get an accurate analysis of his predictions; however, I'm recalling from memory the sequence of events that happened and I don't currently have the time to research all of these things for you. Perhaps I shouldn't have said anything in the first place if I can't take the time to piece together the sequence of events from all of the articles, emails, and forum discussions that I had during the three year time period that I followed his blog. I realize that the sequence of events is critical to my endorsement of Karl's ability; as such, I apologize if I unintentionally misled people to perceive him as an authority based off of a faulty recollection of events from my memory. Edit: I just realized that this post might sound very snarky, but I really don't mean it that way at all. I should have contributed something better in my initial post.