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1. San Francisco is a tech boom town. That means as a half-decent developer you're practically guaranteed a job. Until you're not. A lot of people learned this

1. San Francisco is a tech boom town. That means as a half-decent developer you're practically guaranteed a job. Until you're not. A lot of people learned this the hard way in the late 90s. 2. It's ironic that the author recognizes most startups fail, and suggests that startups in San Francisco have been particularly blessed with the ability to spend millions on "crazy" ideas more likely to fail, yet he doesn't at all question the sustainability of this. His assumption: investors will continue to pour money into startups indefinitely regardless of the returns, and the "talent" will continue to be a primary recipient of this investment regardless of the value it creates. 3. Personal savings is the only true safety net most people can rely on. Ironically, the author is "bad at saving money" which explains why he confuses a "currently hot job market" for a "safety net."

kelnos 14y ago
Personal savings is the only true safety net most people can rely on. Ironically, the author is "bad at saving money" which explains why he confuses a "currently hot job market" for a "safety net." Indeed. The only way it'd be a true safety net is if one could guarantee that the job market here would remain hot in perpetuity. As much as I enjoy working in tech in SF, I'm fully prepared (emotionally and financially) for the possibility that that could change without much notice. But I think the -- perhaps accidental -- message is that, as a software developer, it's a great and fairly safe time to take risks. That could change quickly, but in the meantime, that sentiment is almost certainly true.
- 7Figures2Commas 14y ago
  I think it depends on what "take risks" means. Not all risk is equal, and you can't fully assess risk without looking at an individual's personal situation. The bad news is that measuring risk accurately can be difficult. People overestimate potential returns, and underestimate potential losses. They also often ignore opportunity cost, and fail to use realistic time frames. So I think it's hard to make a blanket statement that it's a "safe" time for a whole group of people to take on risk. The author of this post is the perfect example of this. He thinks he's mitigating the risk of joining startups that are likely to fail by living in San Francisco, where there's a solid job market. Yet he's living in an area with a very high cost of living and apparently not saving any money, so the risk he's taking on is almost certainly a lot higher than the risk he perceives.

kelnos 14y ago

Personal savings is the only true safety net most people can rely on. Ironically, the author is "bad at saving money" which explains why he confuses a "currently hot job market" for a "safety net." Indeed. The only way it'd be a true safety net is if one could guarantee that the job market here would remain hot in perpetuity. As much as I enjoy working in tech in SF, I'm fully prepared (emotionally and financially) for the possibility that that could change without much notice. But I think the -- perhaps accidental -- message is that, as a software developer, it's a great and fairly safe time to take risks. That could change quickly, but in the meantime, that sentiment is almost certainly true.

7Figures2Commas 14y ago
I think it depends on what "take risks" means. Not all risk is equal, and you can't fully assess risk without looking at an individual's personal situation. The bad news is that measuring risk accurately can be difficult. People overestimate potential returns, and underestimate potential losses. They also often ignore opportunity cost, and fail to use realistic time frames. So I think it's hard to make a blanket statement that it's a "safe" time for a whole group of people to take on risk. The author of this post is the perfect example of this. He thinks he's mitigating the risk of joining startups that are likely to fail by living in San Francisco, where there's a solid job market. Yet he's living in an area with a very high cost of living and apparently not saving any money, so the risk he's taking on is almost certainly a lot higher than the risk he perceives.