4 ms·

I remember being perplexed looking at the intrade exchange pricing during the last presidential election. I wasn't the only one. Nate Silver and Paul Graham won

by gdeglin 14y ago

I remember being perplexed looking at the intrade exchange pricing during the last presidential election. I wasn't the only one. Nate Silver and Paul Graham wondered about it too http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/ http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-t... https://twitter.com/intent/retweet?tweet_id=261513897134141440 https://twitter.com/intent/retweet?tweet_id=2615138971341414... The bets on Obama not being re-elected seemed way too high. I convinced myself at the time that this must have been due to either personal bias or perhaps a strong republican leaning userbase on Intrade. But now it's starting to seem like it may have been part of some scam.

teleological 14y ago
I assumed this was because a pool of funds had been set up to prop up Romney's odds to make him appear more viable -- or at least to stave off a story that Intrade users were betting heavily against him. Intrade was a small enough market that this could have been done with a comparatively small investment compared to media buys, and without any technological or financial chicanery. It's not illegal to pay too much for something that could have been had for less.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
sesqu 14y ago
Query version of the Twitter link: https://twitter.com/paulg/status/261513897134141440 https://twitter.com/paulg/status/261513897134141440
gwern 14y ago
It would be elegant and pleasing if we could resolve both mysteries with one stone, but I don't see how it's supposed to work. How does a Romney anomaly lead to $700k embezzled and Intrade suing 2 different parties for $3m+?