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I'm more bothered by the authoritative fact that 'the timeline for a manned mission to Mars is the 2030s'. Says who, NASA? They're not the only ones trying to

I'm more bothered by the authoritative fact that 'the timeline for a manned mission to Mars is the 2030s'. Says who, NASA? They're not the only ones trying to get there.

deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
jarek 14y ago
Does anyone else have a realistic more aggressive timeline?
- jrockway 14y ago
  I'm planning to head over tomorrow. I'll let you know how it goes.
  - alex_doom 14y ago
    Are you there yet?
    - jrockway 14y ago
      Yes. HN is loading slower than normal, however, so you'll have to wait for a full assessment. This whole three-way handshake thing is not such a great idea from Mars.
  - 3327 14y ago
    so was i, wanna split the fare?
- primitur 14y ago
  See the response above - there is a window in 2018/2020 that private entrepreneurs will shoot for. I wish them luck, personally .. I'd love it if someone other than NASA got there first. It would truly ignite the human race.
  - jarek 14y ago
    The response above also suggests 2018-2020 is too soon. Are you aware of any private entrepreneurs realistically disagreeing?
  - grimborg 14y ago
    Like the advent of nuclear energy!
- maaku 14y ago
  See "The Case for Mars" by Robert Zubrin (manned landing 10 years from project start, then every 2 years thereafter), or the various hints dropped by Musk in interviews as to his plan.
- Mvandenbergh 14y ago
  Not that I know. SpaceX has considered sending an unmanned mission based on its Dragon platform in the 2018/2020 window which would prove a lot of technology that they could used for a manned mission later.
Steuard 14y ago
Essentially all Mars missions under serious consideration rely on special alignments of planetary orbits to minimize the fuel required. That leads to very specific "launch windows" that may only occur every few years. For an Earth-Mars trip, the basic launch window is available roughly every two years, but there are particularly low-energy opportunities every 16 years or so. My understanding is that the next of those will be the 2018/2020 launch windows, which is almost certainly too soon for a mission to be ready. So the following low-energy opportunities will be somewhere in the mid 2030's. That's not to say that it would be impossible to use a launch window in the mid-2020's despite the higher fuel cost (or even some other orbit entirely that didn't try to minimize fuel at all), but doing so would be substantially more difficult. Here's a link that is useful primarily because it links to more thorough discussions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_Mars#Launch_windows http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_Mars#Launch_wind...
- maaku 14y ago
  The difference between the Hohmann transfer orbit available every two-ish years and the low-energy opportunities is not significant enough to impact mission viability. The reason a mission to Mars is "scheduled" for 2030's is because that's the nearest date outside of government budgeting schedules. It would take us 10 years to put together a focused effort (like the Apollo program), there's absolutely no plan to do so right now or over the next 10 years of the government budget. So by that sketchy line of thinking, the earliest this could happen is 2013 + 20 years, or 2033. Maybe I'm showing my age, but I remember a decade ago "the Mars landing" was scheduled for the 2020's. In the 90's we were talking about the 2010's (now!). I bet you when 2020 rolls around, it'll be the 2040's that we're looking towards.
  - crusso 14y ago
    Exactly. The 2030s are just beyond what we could demonstrably prove ISN'T currently in the works.

I'm more bothered by the authoritative fact that 'the timeline for a manned mission to Mars is the 2030s'. Says who, NASA? They're not the only ones trying to get there.

deleted 14y ago

[deleted]

jarek 14y ago

Does anyone else have a realistic more aggressive timeline?

jrockway 14y ago
I'm planning to head over tomorrow. I'll let you know how it goes.
- alex_doom 14y ago
  Are you there yet?
  - jrockway 14y ago
    Yes. HN is loading slower than normal, however, so you'll have to wait for a full assessment. This whole three-way handshake thing is not such a great idea from Mars.
- 3327 14y ago
  so was i, wanna split the fare?
primitur 14y ago
See the response above - there is a window in 2018/2020 that private entrepreneurs will shoot for. I wish them luck, personally .. I'd love it if someone other than NASA got there first. It would truly ignite the human race.
- jarek 14y ago
  The response above also suggests 2018-2020 is too soon. Are you aware of any private entrepreneurs realistically disagreeing?
- grimborg 14y ago
  Like the advent of nuclear energy!
maaku 14y ago
See "The Case for Mars" by Robert Zubrin (manned landing 10 years from project start, then every 2 years thereafter), or the various hints dropped by Musk in interviews as to his plan.
Mvandenbergh 14y ago
Not that I know. SpaceX has considered sending an unmanned mission based on its Dragon platform in the 2018/2020 window which would prove a lot of technology that they could used for a manned mission later.

Steuard 14y ago

Essentially all Mars missions under serious consideration rely on special alignments of planetary orbits to minimize the fuel required. That leads to very specific "launch windows" that may only occur every few years. For an Earth-Mars trip, the basic launch window is available roughly every two years, but there are particularly low-energy opportunities every 16 years or so. My understanding is that the next of those will be the 2018/2020 launch windows, which is almost certainly too soon for a mission to be ready. So the following low-energy opportunities will be somewhere in the mid 2030's. That's not to say that it would be impossible to use a launch window in the mid-2020's despite the higher fuel cost (or even some other orbit entirely that didn't try to minimize fuel at all), but doing so would be substantially more difficult. Here's a link that is useful primarily because it links to more thorough discussions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_Mars#Launch_windows http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_Mars#Launch_wind...

maaku 14y ago
The difference between the Hohmann transfer orbit available every two-ish years and the low-energy opportunities is not significant enough to impact mission viability. The reason a mission to Mars is "scheduled" for 2030's is because that's the nearest date outside of government budgeting schedules. It would take us 10 years to put together a focused effort (like the Apollo program), there's absolutely no plan to do so right now or over the next 10 years of the government budget. So by that sketchy line of thinking, the earliest this could happen is 2013 + 20 years, or 2033. Maybe I'm showing my age, but I remember a decade ago "the Mars landing" was scheduled for the 2020's. In the 90's we were talking about the 2010's (now!). I bet you when 2020 rolls around, it'll be the 2040's that we're looking towards.
- crusso 14y ago
  Exactly. The 2030s are just beyond what we could demonstrably prove ISN'T currently in the works.