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This is far too simple. Essentially it is only weighing the financial incentive to stay, and it insufficiently weighs the odds of the startup paying out.
by JeremyChase 18y ago
This is far too simple. Essentially it is only weighing the financial incentive to stay, and it insufficiently weighs the odds of the startup paying out.
- swolchok 18y agoWell, I would phrase it differently -- the financial incentive to stay is salary + EV[options], (where EV is expected value) which takes into account the odds of the startup paying out.
- mrtron 18y agoCorrect, and the median EV[options] is 0.
- hedgehog 18y agoNegative if you factor in the cost to exercise them (typically you will have to when you leave). The author does only recommend exercising the options if the company is profitable, this is probably good advice. If the company is not self-sufficient consider the potential impact of a future financing with the present market. Here are two to factor in to your calculation: - Reallocation of ownership between share classes (substantially diluting the existing common stock). - Creation of new shares with a high senior liquidation preference. You might see the reallocation of the pre-money value happen on a "money-in" basis. The valuation itself will obviously depend on how much the company needs the money. When it's all done the existing common stock (founders and employees) could well be worth less than 1% of the company. If you're still at the company you'll probably get new options issued but if you've left you'll just have the old ones worth approximately $0.00. That said I would focus on whether you're having fun and doing/learning something you think is worthwhile rather than on how much your options might be worth.