You appear to be living in the psychology of about a century ago. I'd recommend Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow as a good layperson's introduction to

You appear to be living in the psychology of about a century ago. I'd recommend Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow as a good layperson's introduction to cognitive psychology in the fields of decision-making and estimation. I also suggest you see http://mres.gmu.edu/pmwiki/uploads/Main/Hedges1987.pdf http://mres.gmu.edu/pmwiki/uploads/Main/Hedges1987.pdf for a review of the degree of consistency within psychology and physics.