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How could the bitcoin exchange rate reverse its trend and start falling? Do you have any scenarios in mind?

cadetzero 14y ago
US government declares it an illegal currency, and if you accept bitcoins at your business you will be investigated. Game over.
- tomsthumb 14y ago
  Some numbers are illegal, but that's because they have particular uses (Crypto etc). How in the world would the US be able to declare possession and exchange of data illegal?
  - omni 14y ago
    Child pornography stored on a computer is data. The possession and exchange of child pornography is illegal.
- MacsHeadroom 14y ago
  They would have to define it to ban it. Bitcoin would just evolve to no longer fit the ban. There are already dozens of other cryptocurrencies brooding- just waiting for a scenario where Bitcoin is pushed out to make more room for them. A ban on bitcoin will work about as well as a ban on piracy.
  - specto 14y ago
    Not really, since the success of bitcoin still relies on conversion to another currency.
    - knowaveragejoe 14y ago
      Additionally, the same applies to those other digital currencies as well.
astrodust 14y ago
A massive chain-split that erodes confidence in the perceived value of the currency. Gold is a tangible substance. BTCs are just data and we all know how volatile that can be.
- DennisP 14y ago
  They just had a split. They resolved it in short order and the value skyrocketed after that.
  - astrodust 14y ago
    It was a relatively minor split. I mean a split where nobody can tell what's what. That would pretty much end this experiment.
comicjk 14y ago
If speculators decide they've had enough and start selling, then the bitcoin will return to a value based on its usefulness for transactions, instead of its attractiveness as an investment. How far it can go down depends on the size of consumer bitcoin demand vs investor bitcoin demand. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv This is the value over a larger time. Sustainable?
fnordfnordfnord 14y ago
The 'cryptobarons' or some currency speculators who hold large quantities of BTC could dump them on the open market and crash the price.
yxhuvud 14y ago
I imagine it will look roughly like the last time it crashed: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Technology/Pix/pictures/2011/10/18/1318952835379/Screen_shot_2011-10-18_at_06.32.29.png http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Technology/Pix/pictures/... 90% of the value were lost in a few months. The market seem even frothier this time so I'd expect the eventual pop the be harsher as well.

US government declares it an illegal currency, and if you accept bitcoins at your business you will be investigated. Game over.

tomsthumb 14y ago
Some numbers are illegal, but that's because they have particular uses (Crypto etc). How in the world would the US be able to declare possession and exchange of data illegal?
- omni 14y ago
  Child pornography stored on a computer is data. The possession and exchange of child pornography is illegal.
MacsHeadroom 14y ago
They would have to define it to ban it. Bitcoin would just evolve to no longer fit the ban. There are already dozens of other cryptocurrencies brooding- just waiting for a scenario where Bitcoin is pushed out to make more room for them. A ban on bitcoin will work about as well as a ban on piracy.
- specto 14y ago
  Not really, since the success of bitcoin still relies on conversion to another currency.
  - knowaveragejoe 14y ago
    Additionally, the same applies to those other digital currencies as well.

astrodust 14y ago

A massive chain-split that erodes confidence in the perceived value of the currency. Gold is a tangible substance. BTCs are just data and we all know how volatile that can be.

DennisP 14y ago
They just had a split. They resolved it in short order and the value skyrocketed after that.
- astrodust 14y ago
  It was a relatively minor split. I mean a split where nobody can tell what's what. That would pretty much end this experiment.

comicjk 14y ago

If speculators decide they've had enough and start selling, then the bitcoin will return to a value based on its usefulness for transactions, instead of its attractiveness as an investment. How far it can go down depends on the size of consumer bitcoin demand vs investor bitcoin demand. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zv This is the value over a larger time. Sustainable?

fnordfnordfnord 14y ago

The 'cryptobarons' or some currency speculators who hold large quantities of BTC could dump them on the open market and crash the price.

yxhuvud 14y ago

I imagine it will look roughly like the last time it crashed: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Technology/Pix/pictures/2011/10/18/1318952835379/Screen_shot_2011-10-18_at_06.32.29.png http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Technology/Pix/pictures/... 90% of the value were lost in a few months. The market seem even frothier this time so I'd expect the eventual pop the be harsher as well.