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People usually incorrectly assume that they are special. While it's certainly possible that there are extenuating circumstances that mean you aren't going to h
by kybernetikos 14y ago
People usually incorrectly assume that they are special. While it's certainly possible that there are extenuating circumstances that mean you aren't going to have a heart attack, in the absence of really strong evidence pointing in another direction, it's more rational to assume that the group statistic does apply to you.
- dasil003 14y agoOne isn't a scientist observing one's own life. Being a realist is a good principle, but rationality is not an end unto itself. In the field of human endeavour, mental attitude is a huge factor. You can weigh out different cases in terms of odds, but the actor who dwells upon statistical improbability will have a much smaller chance of success than the one focused on actually achieving the goal despite the odds.
- kybernetikos 14y agoIt's true that mental attitude is important, but you can still take a rational approach to situations like this. Look honestly at the odds. If you accept them, then cultivate the appropriate mental attitude to help you succeed, but if you do not start with a realistic assessment of the true situation then you are likely to waste much effort trying to replicate the paths that outliers have taken, effort that could have been better spent. That realistic assessment should start by assuming that in the absence of further data you are a typical member of your class. If you have ideas about ways in which you are different to your class, try to validate them with actual data before making judgements based on them, because another feature of typical members of the human race is that they frequently invent spurious reasons to believe they are atypical.