4 ms·

Aww. I bet the person who won the lottery thought they were special, too. Clearly, there is a grand misunderstanding of statistics here. In order to make your

Aww. I bet the person who won the lottery thought they were special, too. Clearly, there is a grand misunderstanding of statistics here. In order to make yourself an exception to the statistics, you're going to have to scientifically explain how you are going to become better. Everyone believes they're better. How are you, truly, going to go above and beyond? Do you have better connections than the average? Do you have the experience needed? Do you have a better idea which is downright guaranteed to succeed? If you can answer Yes to all of those questions, congratulations, you are the average Startup Individual, and the statistics do apply to you. You're going to have to work really hard, have all the right things fall into place, and do everything right, and even then you still have an extremely large chance of failure. It is the nature of the situation. Starting a startup isn't like playing the lottery. You have maybe 20% more control over your outcome. But 80% is still in the hand you're dealt, both as a person and as a company. Make the best of it.

jjb123 14y ago
"Have all the right things fall into place..." is a misconception that is actually far from the truth in my opinion. Most successful startups win because they go after SUCH a large market that they're able to be quite wrong about a lot, but they're right about a few key things (one of which is often thinking it's a massive market when others don't).
- calinet6 14y ago
  Yeah, there are a lot of determining factors which really boost the probability of success, and that is certainly one of them. I'd say most people think they have a huge market though. How do you separate out the ones who are right (and thus the special person for whom the statistic didn't apply) from the failure cases (who believed in essentially the same preconditions but were incorrect/implemented wrong/didn't move quick enough/had some extenuating circumstance/didn't get funding/had the wrong partner/hired the wrong dev/didn't pivot/failed). That's why experience is such a key factor—if you've already done it 3 times you have a lot higher chance of making the right decisions along the way. I'm not saying it's entirely luck, but it's not deterministic either.
samspot 14y ago
I don't think it is a misunderstanding. For example, the overall rate of heart attacks could be something like 10%, but that doesn't mean that I personally have a 10% chance of having a heart attack. My actual chance is likely higher or lower depending on my family history and other factors. Group statistics give us valuable information, but they are not the whole story.
- brockf 14y ago
  But, by talking about the "other factors", you are just re-configuring the group from which one would assess your individual probability of having a heart attack. You're right that group statistics aren't meaningful when the individual is not part of that group but, if that's not the case, then group statistics are the best source of predictive power.
- kybernetikos 14y ago
  People usually incorrectly assume that they are special. While it's certainly possible that there are extenuating circumstances that mean you aren't going to have a heart attack, in the absence of really strong evidence pointing in another direction, it's more rational to assume that the group statistic does apply to you.
  - dasil003 14y ago
    One isn't a scientist observing one's own life. Being a realist is a good principle, but rationality is not an end unto itself. In the field of human endeavour, mental attitude is a huge factor. You can weigh out different cases in terms of odds, but the actor who dwells upon statistical improbability will have a much smaller chance of success than the one focused on actually achieving the goal despite the odds.
    - kybernetikos 14y ago
      It's true that mental attitude is important, but you can still take a rational approach to situations like this. Look honestly at the odds. If you accept them, then cultivate the appropriate mental attitude to help you succeed, but if you do not start with a realistic assessment of the true situation then you are likely to waste much effort trying to replicate the paths that outliers have taken, effort that could have been better spent. That realistic assessment should start by assuming that in the absence of further data you are a typical member of your class. If you have ideas about ways in which you are different to your class, try to validate them with actual data before making judgements based on them, because another feature of typical members of the human race is that they frequently invent spurious reasons to believe they are atypical.

jjb123 14y ago

"Have all the right things fall into place..." is a misconception that is actually far from the truth in my opinion. Most successful startups win because they go after SUCH a large market that they're able to be quite wrong about a lot, but they're right about a few key things (one of which is often thinking it's a massive market when others don't).

calinet6 14y ago
Yeah, there are a lot of determining factors which really boost the probability of success, and that is certainly one of them. I'd say most people think they have a huge market though. How do you separate out the ones who are right (and thus the special person for whom the statistic didn't apply) from the failure cases (who believed in essentially the same preconditions but were incorrect/implemented wrong/didn't move quick enough/had some extenuating circumstance/didn't get funding/had the wrong partner/hired the wrong dev/didn't pivot/failed). That's why experience is such a key factor—if you've already done it 3 times you have a lot higher chance of making the right decisions along the way. I'm not saying it's entirely luck, but it's not deterministic either.

samspot 14y ago

I don't think it is a misunderstanding. For example, the overall rate of heart attacks could be something like 10%, but that doesn't mean that I personally have a 10% chance of having a heart attack. My actual chance is likely higher or lower depending on my family history and other factors. Group statistics give us valuable information, but they are not the whole story.

brockf 14y ago
But, by talking about the "other factors", you are just re-configuring the group from which one would assess your individual probability of having a heart attack. You're right that group statistics aren't meaningful when the individual is not part of that group but, if that's not the case, then group statistics are the best source of predictive power.
kybernetikos 14y ago
People usually incorrectly assume that they are special. While it's certainly possible that there are extenuating circumstances that mean you aren't going to have a heart attack, in the absence of really strong evidence pointing in another direction, it's more rational to assume that the group statistic does apply to you.
- dasil003 14y ago
  One isn't a scientist observing one's own life. Being a realist is a good principle, but rationality is not an end unto itself. In the field of human endeavour, mental attitude is a huge factor. You can weigh out different cases in terms of odds, but the actor who dwells upon statistical improbability will have a much smaller chance of success than the one focused on actually achieving the goal despite the odds.
  - kybernetikos 14y ago
    It's true that mental attitude is important, but you can still take a rational approach to situations like this. Look honestly at the odds. If you accept them, then cultivate the appropriate mental attitude to help you succeed, but if you do not start with a realistic assessment of the true situation then you are likely to waste much effort trying to replicate the paths that outliers have taken, effort that could have been better spent. That realistic assessment should start by assuming that in the absence of further data you are a typical member of your class. If you have ideas about ways in which you are different to your class, try to validate them with actual data before making judgements based on them, because another feature of typical members of the human race is that they frequently invent spurious reasons to believe they are atypical.