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Special forces training is taken by a large number of people - some of these people are just chancing it, hoping they will be able to push through anyway but no

by RyanZAG 14y ago

Special forces training is taken by a large number of people - some of these people are just chancing it, hoping they will be able to push through anyway but not really prepared or ready for it. Others, like your brother, are fully prepared. When looking at a base rate, it's important to understand the different divisions inside that base rate and the reasons people drop out. In special training, the reasons people are likely to drop out are because they aren't physically fit enough to cope. This gives your a brother a good indication - he likely knows others of similar fitness to him who passed. The key here is that there isn't much randomness involved - either you are fit enough or you aren't. Startups are a completely different ballgame. The main factors behind dropping out are a complete mystery - team composition, relationships, lucky deals with investors, hitting your marketing in at the same time some other big player pulls out or pitches in - the list is endless and impossible to even fully understand. Basically what I'm trying to get at is that comparing something you have complete control over (special forces training) vs something you don't (a startup's success) is not a great analogy. However you're still correct anyway - the best indicator of whether a startup succeeds is whether or not they try in the first place! So it's always best to try and ignore the baseline.

joelandren 14y ago
I'd argue that special forces training is not a matter of complete control, I'm sure that people bump up against physical limitations (eyesight, coordination, etc.) that would allow them to be a regular soldier, but they never know until they try. Similarly, things like carefully choosing your co-founders, advisors and investors... doing good customer development, understanding your market better than anyone, give you more control over your fate. Nothing is absolute, but the analogy seems apt to me: You're not a statistic.
dgreensp 14y ago
I disagree. Statistics about start-ups also ignore how prepared people are, and how committed and talented they are. Many personal achievements in life are a "complete mystery" to many or most observers, or to science, or to mainstream intellectual discourse, but they still draw on rare and special qualities of individuals. Even if you don't "control" the outcome, that doesn't mean it's not a function of who you are (in the broadest sense).
- _delirium 14y ago
  Sounds like an attempt to posit away the fundamental attribution error.
  - dgreensp 14y ago
    A couple thoughts: * Getting demotivated by statistics is the worst possible use of time and energy. It means nothing that the average reader of this comment has various qualities and abilities that, on average, are about average for a reader of this comment. Every reader is an individual, not an average. Start-ups, like people, and marriages, are so different that you just can't generalize across them in very illuminating ways. This is the same as saying there are many subtypes, and at best you could draw comparisons or generalizations within a subtype. Which is the same as saying if you scope your generalizations small enough and choose your points of comparison wisely, you have a chance of capturing a meaningful pattern that might actually tell you something about an individual specimen. Or you might just be over-analyzing. * It's possible to create causality and attribute events to your actions, even retroactively -- it's called taking responsibility. You can even take responsibility for things you didn't know about, like an executive or official who resigns over misconduct below him. There is very little we have direct control over -- the positions of our limbs, for example, but only when we are paying attention to them -- but we are expected to exercise whatever indirect control we have. People in high positions of power and responsibility have very indirect control -- hiring the right people, putting policies and checks in place -- but they must accept this responsibility and milk it for all it's worth. When you take responsibility for something, you choose to account for (recognize, pay attention to) the causality between you and that thing. We exist in a vast interconnected web of causality, so it's all what you choose to focus on. This isn't about disposition vs. circumstances, either. Your disposition and circumstances are both different from other people's, as are your goals, motivations, and strategies. It's about how much weight you should give a statistic about other people when trying to determine something about yourself. As you learn more about yourself and the world, and especially if you pursue areas where you are strong, statistics become meaningless.
    - deleted 14y ago
auctiontheory 14y ago
> In special training, the reasons people are likely to drop > out are because they aren't physically fit enough to cope. That is the opposite of everything I have read about special forces training. Anyone who makes it past the initial stages is extremely physically fit. The difference between the qualifiers and the rest is in the mind.
- dclowd9901 14y ago
  Still, it's in your mind. To make it more like the startup world, the gauntlet should randomly throw in bear attacks.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
fizx 14y ago
> The main factors behind dropping out are a complete mystery - team composition, relationships, lucky deals with investors, hitting your marketing in at the same time some other big player pulls out or pitches in - the list is endless and impossible to even fully understand. What? There are some things beyond your control, but work with smart people on a problem people are willing to pay for on the leading edge of the current wave of technology. Dozens of good and bad things happen randomly--take advantage or weather the storms. Don't fuck up any of the obvious things, and work hard. Do this and you'll get paid. Now, there's a whole other class of startup where you're betting that in six months, you'll have figured out the magic viral fairy dust that makes 200 million people want to visit your site before the money runs out. You might need some luck.
jdotjdot 14y ago
I think that this doesn't address the important element that things like special training courses aren't wholly about "succeeding" or "failing," especially when we're making statements like it being all about the mind. The Army, in its special forces personnel, is looking for a very specific group of people, and the challenges are designed to weed out those people from everyone else who is going through the course. Any good selective interview or course like this should be designed that the company/division is testing who the candidates are that meet their desired overall profile--in which case, not passing the test or course isn't a failure or demonstrative of a lack of ability on the candidate's part, but rather a lack of fit for that specific position or unit.
- auctiontheory 14y ago
  A wonderful point - too often overlooked.
erva 14y ago
As a former Recon Marine I can attest that there are two reasons that people would drop out or be dropped for selection. The first wave of drops is how you describe. It is people that don't have the basic physical performance to continue. This in my perception accounts for a relatively small number of drops due to everyone going through prior screening. The second wave of drops is very similar to the first, but the root is different. The failures are typically for physical reasons, but the source was mental. A lay thing to say is "He didn't have the heart." These people are typically labeled as "badge hunters" as they are looking for the bravado of the title, but honestly don't enjoy the job itself. The wrong types of motivation will quickly weed themselves out.

by RyanZAG 14y ago

joelandren 14y ago

I'd argue that special forces training is not a matter of complete control, I'm sure that people bump up against physical limitations (eyesight, coordination, etc.) that would allow them to be a regular soldier, but they never know until they try. Similarly, things like carefully choosing your co-founders, advisors and investors... doing good customer development, understanding your market better than anyone, give you more control over your fate. Nothing is absolute, but the analogy seems apt to me: You're not a statistic.

dgreensp 14y ago

I disagree. Statistics about start-ups also ignore how prepared people are, and how committed and talented they are. Many personal achievements in life are a "complete mystery" to many or most observers, or to science, or to mainstream intellectual discourse, but they still draw on rare and special qualities of individuals. Even if you don't "control" the outcome, that doesn't mean it's not a function of who you are (in the broadest sense).

_delirium 14y ago
Sounds like an attempt to posit away the fundamental attribution error.
- dgreensp 14y ago
  A couple thoughts: * Getting demotivated by statistics is the worst possible use of time and energy. It means nothing that the average reader of this comment has various qualities and abilities that, on average, are about average for a reader of this comment. Every reader is an individual, not an average. Start-ups, like people, and marriages, are so different that you just can't generalize across them in very illuminating ways. This is the same as saying there are many subtypes, and at best you could draw comparisons or generalizations within a subtype. Which is the same as saying if you scope your generalizations small enough and choose your points of comparison wisely, you have a chance of capturing a meaningful pattern that might actually tell you something about an individual specimen. Or you might just be over-analyzing. * It's possible to create causality and attribute events to your actions, even retroactively -- it's called taking responsibility. You can even take responsibility for things you didn't know about, like an executive or official who resigns over misconduct below him. There is very little we have direct control over -- the positions of our limbs, for example, but only when we are paying attention to them -- but we are expected to exercise whatever indirect control we have. People in high positions of power and responsibility have very indirect control -- hiring the right people, putting policies and checks in place -- but they must accept this responsibility and milk it for all it's worth. When you take responsibility for something, you choose to account for (recognize, pay attention to) the causality between you and that thing. We exist in a vast interconnected web of causality, so it's all what you choose to focus on. This isn't about disposition vs. circumstances, either. Your disposition and circumstances are both different from other people's, as are your goals, motivations, and strategies. It's about how much weight you should give a statistic about other people when trying to determine something about yourself. As you learn more about yourself and the world, and especially if you pursue areas where you are strong, statistics become meaningless.
  - deleted 14y ago

auctiontheory 14y ago

> In special training, the reasons people are likely to drop > out are because they aren't physically fit enough to cope. That is the opposite of everything I have read about special forces training. Anyone who makes it past the initial stages is extremely physically fit. The difference between the qualifiers and the rest is in the mind.

dclowd9901 14y ago
Still, it's in your mind. To make it more like the startup world, the gauntlet should randomly throw in bear attacks.
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]

fizx 14y ago

> The main factors behind dropping out are a complete mystery - team composition, relationships, lucky deals with investors, hitting your marketing in at the same time some other big player pulls out or pitches in - the list is endless and impossible to even fully understand. What? There are some things beyond your control, but work with smart people on a problem people are willing to pay for on the leading edge of the current wave of technology. Dozens of good and bad things happen randomly--take advantage or weather the storms. Don't fuck up any of the obvious things, and work hard. Do this and you'll get paid. Now, there's a whole other class of startup where you're betting that in six months, you'll have figured out the magic viral fairy dust that makes 200 million people want to visit your site before the money runs out. You might need some luck.

jdotjdot 14y ago

I think that this doesn't address the important element that things like special training courses aren't wholly about "succeeding" or "failing," especially when we're making statements like it being all about the mind. The Army, in its special forces personnel, is looking for a very specific group of people, and the challenges are designed to weed out those people from everyone else who is going through the course. Any good selective interview or course like this should be designed that the company/division is testing who the candidates are that meet their desired overall profile--in which case, not passing the test or course isn't a failure or demonstrative of a lack of ability on the candidate's part, but rather a lack of fit for that specific position or unit.

auctiontheory 14y ago
A wonderful point - too often overlooked.

erva 14y ago

As a former Recon Marine I can attest that there are two reasons that people would drop out or be dropped for selection. The first wave of drops is how you describe. It is people that don't have the basic physical performance to continue. This in my perception accounts for a relatively small number of drops due to everyone going through prior screening. The second wave of drops is very similar to the first, but the root is different. The failures are typically for physical reasons, but the source was mental. A lay thing to say is "He didn't have the heart." These people are typically labeled as "badge hunters" as they are looking for the bravado of the title, but honestly don't enjoy the job itself. The wrong types of motivation will quickly weed themselves out.