Personally, I expect that the current recession will not end before then. Wall Street is up a bit (and by "up a bit" I mean "it's still way way down, but from

Personally, I expect that the current recession will not end before then. Wall Street is up a bit (and by "up a bit" I mean "it's still way way down, but from time to time it's up a few points"), but the fundamentals are as bad as they've ever been. I've got an acquaintance who works in energy demand forecasting, and she can see the aggregate expectations of growth 6, 9, 12 months out by looking at energy future prices, and she says that it shows all the classic signs of a "Japanese style" "L-shaped" recession. I also think that most people are waiting for the other show to drop - inflation, further huge government deficits, further layoffs (I note that the job figures released by ADP yesterday were worse than expected).