If disability is masking unemployment, we should expect anomalies in other labor statistics, like labor force participation rate, or per capita employment. Lab

If disability is masking unemployment, we should expect anomalies in other labor statistics, like labor force participation rate, or per capita employment. Labor force participation has been declining the last few years, but at least some of that is aging population and massive recession. And despite the decline, the rate remains well within historical bounds. I'm glancing at Bureau of Labor Statistics charts, not seeing a massive hidden class of people that are somehow staying off all the books. On the other hand, there's an MIT economist that totally disagrees with me, claims that disability DOES explain trends in other labor statistics, like participation rate: http://economics.mit.edu/faculty/dautor/papers/disability http://economics.mit.edu/faculty/dautor/papers/disability Full disclosure: I am most definitely not nor have ever been "an MIT economist." His paper from 2006 depicts some interesting trends. (Wait, 2006? This guy has been forecasting disability armageddon for seven fucking years, when the real threat back then was the imminent housing bubble!? Now I'm skeptical again...) ==================== Data: UPDATE Neat labor data infographic: http://newyorkfed.org/employment/ http://newyorkfed.org/employment/ Scary labor force participation chart (with really narrow scale to heighten the effect): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 A million Census charts: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/labor_force_employment_earnings/labor_force_status.html http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/labor_force_empl... Employment status, 1970+: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0586.pdf http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0586.p... A long article on unemployment rate, participation rate, etc., with some brilliant charts: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/graphs-unemployment-rate-participation.html http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/graphs-unemploymen... Autor and Duggan's 2006 piece I reference above: http://economics.mit.edu/files/597 http://economics.mit.edu/files/597 [PDF]