3 ms·

virtual currency

by ashot 18y ago

virtual currency

smanek 18y ago
That defeats the whole point, unless the virtual currency is worth something in the real world - at the very least considerable social currency or (ideally) it should be exchangeable for real goods and services. People bet differently when they have something real at stake - ever tried to play poker with no money behind the chips? It's a completely different (and completely boring) game. It's the reason the market instantly knew who was responsible for the Challenger crash (when it took Richard Feynman and the rest of genius scientists on the panel months to even have a plausible idea).
- gamache 18y ago
  I'd love to see a reference on that Challenger remark -- seriously.
  - smanek 18y ago
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/8142600/the-Stock-Market-Reaction-to-the-Challenger-Crash http://www.scribd.com/doc/8142600/the-Stock-Market-Reaction-... Sorry for the scribd link. It's the first copy I found that wasn't behind a pay wall. The gist is that within a few hours of the Challenger crash the stock for the company responsible for the component that failed went down far more than the stocks for other companies involved in building challenger. Interestingly, the equity value the stock lost (~200 Million USD) is almost exactly the same as the estimated total loss in profit (fines, lawsuits, updates to safety standards, lost contracts, etc).
    - ryanwaggoner 18y ago
      Hmmm...so traders had a 1 in 4 shot of picking the correct company and they happened to do so? I remain unconvinced. I also remain unconvinced that this data is useful. It's not like we should let trader behavior influence safety investigations, right?
      - smanek 18y ago
        Go read "The Wisdom of Crowds" - it is chock full of examples like this. No one is saying we should use markets for safety investigations - we are saying that we should use it predicatively.
- abecedarius 18y ago
  IIRC according to Feynman's memoirs the O-rings were the leading candidate already in his first meeting with NASA engineers, and in his first days in DC General Kutyna made the link to cold-weather brittleness. It did not take them months to have a plausible idea. They spent months looking into lots of things anyway.
- mhb 18y ago
  Maybe a prediction market inside Second Life. Isn't there some kind of exchange rate for lindens to real money (http://secondlife.com/statistics/economy-market.php http://secondlife.com/statistics/economy-market.php)?
tigerthink 18y ago
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/ http://home.inklingmarkets.com/

virtual currency

by ashot 18y ago

virtual currency

That defeats the whole point, unless the virtual currency is worth something in the real world - at the very least considerable social currency or (ideally) it should be exchangeable for real goods and services. People bet differently when they have something real at stake - ever tried to play poker with no money behind the chips? It's a completely different (and completely boring) game. It's the reason the market instantly knew who was responsible for the Challenger crash (when it took Richard Feynman and the rest of genius scientists on the panel months to even have a plausible idea).

gamache 18y ago
I'd love to see a reference on that Challenger remark -- seriously.
- smanek 18y ago
  http://www.scribd.com/doc/8142600/the-Stock-Market-Reaction-to-the-Challenger-Crash http://www.scribd.com/doc/8142600/the-Stock-Market-Reaction-... Sorry for the scribd link. It's the first copy I found that wasn't behind a pay wall. The gist is that within a few hours of the Challenger crash the stock for the company responsible for the component that failed went down far more than the stocks for other companies involved in building challenger. Interestingly, the equity value the stock lost (~200 Million USD) is almost exactly the same as the estimated total loss in profit (fines, lawsuits, updates to safety standards, lost contracts, etc).
  - ryanwaggoner 18y ago
    Hmmm...so traders had a 1 in 4 shot of picking the correct company and they happened to do so? I remain unconvinced. I also remain unconvinced that this data is useful. It's not like we should let trader behavior influence safety investigations, right?
    - smanek 18y ago
      Go read "The Wisdom of Crowds" - it is chock full of examples like this. No one is saying we should use markets for safety investigations - we are saying that we should use it predicatively.
abecedarius 18y ago
IIRC according to Feynman's memoirs the O-rings were the leading candidate already in his first meeting with NASA engineers, and in his first days in DC General Kutyna made the link to cold-weather brittleness. It did not take them months to have a plausible idea. They spent months looking into lots of things anyway.
mhb 18y ago
Maybe a prediction market inside Second Life. Isn't there some kind of exchange rate for lindens to real money (http://secondlife.com/statistics/economy-market.php http://secondlife.com/statistics/economy-market.php)?

tigerthink 18y ago

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/ http://home.inklingmarkets.com/