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"The entire industry is based on risk." The entire industry is based on a business model which only a monkey could fuck up, yet the industry manages to fuck it
by martinced 14y ago
"The entire industry is based on risk."
The entire industry is based on a business model which only a monkey could fuck up, yet the industry manages to fuck it up (as Taleb writes).
You do realize that all these risk computation are totally bogus and led to big trouble in 2008 right?
And that there's no risk because when the shit hit the fan bankster simply go say they're too big too fail and get bailed out.
And at that point they're effectively on life support and, still as Taleb is saying it, they should shut the fuck up.
Don't talk about risk when the only risk is being bailed out by public money once you, of course, miscomputed the risk.
Wanna talk about all the banks in the eurozone that needed a bail out in the recent years since Greece defaulted because they didn't correctly analyze the Greece state default risk?
Hint: it's far from over and far more fucked up than most people think and more banks will be bailed out again with public money (starting with Cyprus right now).
Yet in 1999 economists did warn about precisely that: about the euro that would lead to both Spain and Greece doing state default. Who listened?
Where in the financial world did anyone listen to that and take that risk into account? Nowhere.
Nobody.
Because public money is always here to bail out.
So please stop telling us there's risk. It's all a freakin' broken model and the entire financial system ain't there to provide liquidity anymore: it's become something out of control trying to shift as much money around as possible in order to generate as much "rake" as possible.
And if these monkeys didn't even correctly manage the risk on something as essential as state debt, when having all the information available to correctly compute such a risk (including warning from economists that defaults would be coming), what makes you think they'd be able to compute the risk on more complicated products, like CDS and all the crazy stuff that this industry simply makes up in order to take a bigger rake on all the money shifted around?
It's a bunch of quants who've lost it: they're out of touch with the real world and can't understand something as basic as the inevitability of a state defaulting when facing the facts.
And you're trying to tell us that they know what taking risk is?
Risk is entrepreneurs putting their personal belongings on the line. Not a bunch of sick gamblers using broken models to try to generate more and more money with the public money that is keeping their employers alive.
"The black swan" is a pretty good book. Of course it's not "nice" towards people like you. Sadly he was right and predicted correctly what would happen, contrarily to all the supposedly "risk takers" you seem to be so fond of because they'd be taking such amazing risks.
- obstacle1 14y agoYes, I have also read "the Black Swan". "Fooled by Randomness", too (which is much better), and "Antifragile" as well. Let's all go read some books. I am unsure of the point you are trying to make, largely because you don't make a point in this post.
- michaelochurch 14y agoI like this post. Business sociopathy is a complex topic but the essence of it can be summed up in 6 words: Heads, I win. Tails, you lose.
- dyno12345 14y agoSo, simultaneously the banks too stupid to understand risks or perhaps tie their shoes, and at the same time the critics are so smart they would have been able to put the rest of the industry out of business with their prescience but didn't attempt such.